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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Point Spread Pick

By David Schwab
Date: 20/10/2016 8:30 pm
Location: Lambeau Field
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds



Point Spread: Green Bay -9
Total: 46

Fabled Lambeau Field is the site of Thursday Night Football in Week 7 of the NFL regular season with the Chicago Bears taking on the Green Bay Packers. Game time for this classic NFC North clash is set for 8:30 p.m. (ET) and it will be broadcast nationally on NBC.

Chicago at Green Bay Game Overview

Things have gone from bad to worse for the Bears following a dismal 1-5 start both straight-up and against the spread. After losing to Indianapolis 29-23 in Week 5 as 3.5-point road underdogs, they came up just short in last week’s 17-16 loss to Jacksonville as 2.5-point favorites at home. The total stayed UNDER 46 points in that game after going OVER or ending as a PUSH in three of their first five games.

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Brian Hoyer continues to get the call as Chicago’s starting quarterback over veteran Jay Cutler, but this offense continues to go nowhere fast with an average of just 16.8 points a game that is ranked 31st in the NFL. This unit is ranked fourth when it comes to passing yards, but it has struggled to move the ball on the ground. Defensively, the Bears are 11th in the league in yards allowed, but they fall to 19th when it comes to points allowed (23.8).

There could be even more concern for their team in Green Bay. The Packers are coming off an embarrassing 30-16 loss to Dallas this past Sunday as 5.5-point favorites at home. They are now 3-2 on the year SU with a 1-3-1 record ATS. The total stayed UNDER 47.5 points in the loss to the Cowboys and it has stayed UNDER in three of their last four games. The total has now stayed UNDER in 14 of Green Bay’s last 20 games.

There is no doubt that Aaron Rodgers is the starting quarterback for the Packers, but his sloppy play against Dallas might be a sign of deeper issues with this offense heading into the meat of its schedule. Green Bay has turned the ball over nine times in five games and it comes into this game ranked well down the list in its overall turnover ratio (-3). The offense is averaging a total of 331.8 yards a game, including just 226.6 yards a game through the air. Defensively, the Packers have remained solid and they are 10th in the NFL in yards allowed and second against the run.

Chicago at Green Bay Game Betting Trends

  • The Bears have failed to cover the spread in six of the last seven games overall and in four of their last five games on the road. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five road games.
  • The Packers are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight home games, but in their last 20 games at home they have gone a SU 16-4. The total has stayed UNDER in eight of their last nine contests played at Lambeau Field.
  • Head-to-head in the NFC North tilt, Green Bay has won 10 of the last 12 meetings SU and it is 6-2 SU in its last eight home games against the Bears. The total has stayed UNDER in six of the last eight meetings in Green Bay.

Chicago at Green Bay Prediction

Both of these teams have not played up to expectations this season although the bar for Green Bay was set much higher before the regular season got underway. The Packers have dominated this series over the past several seasons SU, but their current form does not instill a ton of confidence in their ability to cover a nine-point spread.

The better play in this one could be the UNDER on the 46-point total line. Both defenses are playing fairly well and it is hard to see Chicago scoring all that many points on offense.

Free Pick: Take the Under 46
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