The last three times the Bills and Titans have met the game’s been decided by exactly one point, including a 13-12 Buffalo victory last season. And Sunday afternoon’s meeting in Nashville will probably be close, too. Who do we like here for our free NFL pick?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 5’s NFL betting odds opened Tennessee at -3 over Buffalo, with an over/under of right around 38. Both those figures were holding steady in early betting action.
Bills vs. Titans Set-Up
Buffalo is off to a 3-1 start to this season, after taking its first loss last week, a tough 16-10 decision at home to New England. The Bills fell behind early to the Patriots 13-0 in the first quarter, pulled to within 13-10 in the third but could get no closer. However, they did manage to hold on for the cover as seven-point underdogs.
On the day Buffalo out-gained New England 375-224, out-rushed the Patriots 135-74, held a 23-11 advantage in first downs and won the time of possession by a 33-27 split. But the Bills also had a punt blocked, missed a field goal, and lost the turnover battle 4-1, basically resulting in a minus-13 points differential.
Buffalo starting quarterback Josh Allen left last week’s game with a possible concussion, and his status for this game is uncertain. Back-up Matt Barkley didn’t look too bad in relief last week and will get the call Sunday if Allen can’t go.
The Bills opened this season with wins over the Jets, Giants, and Cincinnati, three teams who are a combined 2-9 so far this season.
Tennessee, meanwhile, is 2-2, after beating the Falcons in Atlanta last week 24-10. The Titans took a 7-0 lead three minutes into the game on a Marcus Mariota-AJ Brown 55-yard throw-catch-run touchdown connection, pushed their advantage to 24-7 by halftime, and held on from there for the outright victory as three-point underdogs.
On the day Tennessee got out-gained by the Falcons 422-365 but out-rushed Atlanta 138-58. The Titans also stuffed the Falcons three times on fourth downs.
Tennessee opened this season with that big win at Cleveland, then lost back-to-back games to Indianapolis and Jacksonville. Sustained success isn’t exactly the Titans’ forte.
These teams met back in Week 5 of last season; a 13-12 Bills win in Buffalo on a field goal at the buzzer. The Bills won that game outright as six-point underdogs, and the game played under a total of 38, as the teams combined for just 444 yards of total offense.
NFL Betting Trends
- Buffalo is 7-11 SU but 10-8 ATS over its last 18 road games.
- Tennessee is 6-3 SU but 4-5 ATS over its last nine home games.
- Through Thursday night’s game, home teams are just 29-34 SU, 21-41 ATS so far this NFL season.
- Through Thursday night, favorites are 38-25 SU but 25-37 ATS this season.
Totals Report
- Unders are 4-0 in Bills games this season, which are averaging just 35 total points.
- Unders are 3-1 in Titans games this season, which are averaging 38 points.
- Through Thursday, unders are 35-29 this NFL season.
- Get more details: Bills at Titans NFL Match-up Stats
