Bills are suddenly starting to feel some playoff pressure after going 4-4 SU in the last eight games. This season, the Bills have been favorites in 11 of 12 games but will be 3.5 point underdogs when they take on the reigning Super Bowl Champions for a very intriguing week 14 showdown.
Last week, I was on the Buccaneers heavily in their week 13 showdown with the Falcons. I mentioned several match-up advantages that Tampa Bay posed over Atlanta and encouraged bettors to not shy away from the 11 point betting line. Fortunately, the Buccaneers held Atlanta scoreless in the 2nd half to pull out a 30-17 victory and cover, thanks to a four-touchdown performance from QB Tom Brady. Brady bounced back from a disappointing week 12 performance to hit 38 of 51 passing for 368 yards with four scores and a pick. On Sunday, Brady will get one of his most difficult challenges of the season against the NFL’s top-rated defense, which will likely be a strong measuring stick to determine if the Buccaneers are still the team to beat with the playoffs on the horizon.
Buffalo Bills vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Trends
- The Bills are 14-6 SU in the last 20 games
- The Bills are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games on the road
- The Bills have hit the “under” in six of the last eight games
- The Bills are 1-6-1 ATS in the last eight games against Tampa Bay
- The Bills are 0-6 ATS in the last six games at Tampa Bay
- The Bucs are 4-2 ATS in the last six games
- The Bucs are 8-0 SU in the last eight games at home
- The Bucs are 17-3 SU in the last 20 games
- The Bucs are 5-1 ATS in the last six games against AFC opponents
- The Bucs have hit the “under” in five of the last seven games
- Get more details: Buffalo at Tampa Bay Betting Stats
Buffalo Bills vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Analysis
I think it is obvious that the Buccaneers are playing the most complete football between the two teams at this point in the season. Brady continues to produce unprecedented numbers on a weekly basis with elite weapons at his disposal; meanwhile, RB Leonard Fournette has stepped up his game tremendously to give defenses another worrisome threat in the ground game. Add in the improving play on the defensive side of the football, and Tampa seems to be playing well in all facets of the game
With that being said, the match-ups are intriguing this week. The Bills’ pass defense is very talented and is among the few groups in the league that can match the talent level of the Tampa Bay receiving corps led by Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Perhaps more importantly, Buffalo also has the pass-rush to make things uncomfortable for Tom Brady. While Brady continues to defy Father Time, he has never been terrific under duress. Therefore, I don’t expect things to come easy for Brady this week, given the match-up.
For Buffalo fans, the problem is that I don’t have any confidence that the Bills’ offense will be able to outscore Tampa Bay even if they get help from the defense. Despite the early year success, the Bills have produced subpar results on offense in recent weeks, thanks mainly to injuries along the offensive front. QB Josh Allen has had minimal protection, and it is showing in his performance which has featured seven interceptions in the last five games, an uncanny trait from the Bills star quarterback. As most fans are aware, the Bills offense flows through the arm of Allen and the Bills’ passing attack led by WR Stefon Diggs. The Bills do not produce much of a rushing threat and will be going against an elite Buccaneers run defense to complicate that narrative. As a result, the Bills’ offensive success will rely directly on Allen’s performance this week with an offensive line that has one of their worst match-ups to date. While I am sure Buffalo will have their moments, I just don’t see them creating an equal amount of scoring opportunities compared to Brady and the Bucs.
