Pittsburgh owns a three-game winning streak, while Buffalo just had one of those snapped, heading into a key game in the AFC wild-card race Sunday night at Heinz Field. The Steelers are favored by less than home-field advantage for this one, possibly because of the Bills’ success on the road this season. Who do we like here for our free NFL pick?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 15’s NFL betting odds opened Pittsburgh at -2 over Buffalo, with an over/under of right around 37. Early betting action then dipped that total to 36, the lowest number we’ve seen on a total this season.
Bills vs. Steelers Set-Up
Buffalo just had a three-game winning streak snapped by a 24-17 loss at home to Baltimore last week. The Bills fell behind the Ravens 10-0 early, trailed 17-6 in the third quarter, but pulled to within one score with seven minutes left. Buffalo then drove to the Baltimore 16-yard line late but came up empty on a fourth down.
Buffalo also came up just short ATS as a home dog of 6.5 points.
On the day, the Bills only produced 209 yards of total offense but held the Ravens to just 257 yards, including 118 on the ground, about 90 less than Baltimore’s season rushing average.
Two weeks ago, Buffalo won at Dallas 26-15; just prior to that, the Bills beat Denver 20-3, and just before that, they beat Miami 37-20. So Buffalo’s held its last four opponents to 62 total points.
At 9-4 overall, the Bills trail division-leading New England by one game in the AFC East, with a game against the Patriots coming up next week. The Bills also own the top spot in the AFC wild-card standings, one game clear of Pittsburgh and Tennessee.
The Steelers, meanwhile, are 3-0 both SU and ATS over the last three weeks and 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS over the previous eight, after winning at Arizona last week 23-17. Pittsburgh pounced out to a 10-0 lead on the Cardinals, let Arizona get within 20-17 in the fourth quarter, but added a field goal and hung on from there for the victory and the cover as a three-point road favorite.
The Steelers out-rushed the Cardinals 140-71. So Pittsburgh’s out-rushed its last three opponents by a per-game average of 141-86. And that’s usually a good way to win a game and cover a spread in the NFL.
At 8-5 overall, the Steelers trail first-place Baltimore by three games in the AFC North, and will be eliminated from the divisional race if the Ravens beat the Jets Thursday night. But Pittsburgh also owns the second AFC wild-card spot at the moment, a tie-breaker ahead of Tennessee.
These teams last met three seasons ago in Buffalo, resulting in a 27-20 Steelers win up in Buffalo. Ben Roethlisberger quarterbacked Pittsburgh that day against Tyrod Taylor for the Bills.
NFL Betting Trends
- Buffalo is 5-1 SU, 5-0-1 ATS on the road this season.
- Buffalo is 14-10 SU, 14-9-1 ATS, with Josh Allen as the starter at QB.
- Pittsburgh is 5-2 both SU and ATS at home this season.
- Pittsburgh is 3-0 both SU and ATS with Devlin Hodges as the starter at quarterback.
Totals Report
- Unders are 10-3 in Bills games this season, which are averaging 37 total points.
- Unders are also 10-3 in Steelers games this season, which are averaging 39 points.
- Unders are 105-98 in the NFL this season, as games are averaging 45 points.
- Get more details: Bills at Steelers NFL Match-up Stats
