Buffalo kept their playoff hopes alive with a 28-21 victory over Jacksonville last week. Oakland improved to 9-2 with a 35-32 comeback victory over Carolina last Sunday.
The Bills lead the NFL in rushing and gained 153 yards last week on the ground. The Raiders run defense hasn’t been great on the year and they allowed 129 yards on 25 carries against the Panthers. Look for the defense to use rookie S Karl Joseph in the box frequently on 1st down and obvious running downs. RB LeSean McCoy was banged up 2 weeks ago but was productive last week (19-103-2). RB Mike Gillislee has been an excellent backup (5.8 ypc) and also must be accounted for. Oakland’s defense has been improving as the season has gone on but they are still prone to giving up big plays. They have to contain the running game or their defense will tire from lengthy stays on the field. QB Tyrod Taylor is a running threat as well but not a dynamic passer. He threw for 166 yards last week and Buffalo averages less than 185 passing ypg. The Raiders’ pass defense was terrible at the beginning of the season but has shown signs of improvement in the second half of the season. Even with the return of WR Sammy Watkins from injury, this is a very weak passing team. Look for DE Khalil Mack to be a handful for this o-line as he has really elevated his play in recent weeks.
Oakland’s offense continues to rely on the right arm of QB Derek Carr. He broke his right pinkie last week and returned with a glove on and didn’t take any snaps from under center. Buffalo’s run defense was gashed for 183 yards last week by a Jaguars team that was averaging only 87.6 ypg before that contest. The Raiders run game is by no means elite but they do have speed in the backfield. The Bills front seven isn’t the quickest group in the league and they will have to do a better job of gap integrity this week. Carr threw for 315 yards against Carolina and is averaging better than 285 ypg through the air. He also has a 22-5 TD/INT ratio and uses all of his weapons very well. WR Michael Crabtree had a big game last week (8-110) and can be the No.1 wideout on any given Sunday. WR Amari Cooper leads the team in catches and receptions while TE Clive Walford has become a bigger part of the offensive game plan as the season has wore on. WR Seth Roberts is second on the team with 5 TD catches and all 3 RBs are adept in the passing game. I see Carr having a good day vs. this secondary, a group that hasn’t faced many dynamic passing attacks on the year. Buffalo’s defense has 33 sacks on the year and can get after the QB but Carr has been sacked only 13 times in 2016.
Public Money Consensus
In this week’s NFL matchup between Buffalo and Oakland the public is definitively leaning to an Oakland cover of the 3.5 points with 78%. The over is the bet this week with 65% of the betting public wagering in this direction.
