The NFL gives us a high-stakes AFC East grudge match to watch and bet on when the 8-3 Bills battle the 6-5 Patriots on this week’s edition of Thursday night football betting action. Buffalo remains right in the running for the No. 1 seed in the upcoming AFC playoffs, while New England is trying to track down a wild-card spot.
Which way are we going here with our free NFL betting pick?
NFL Betting Lines
The Week 13 NFL betting odds opened Buffalo at -5.5 for Thursday night, with an over/under of right around 45. Early sharp betting action then edged the Bills down to -3.5 and dipped that total to 43.5.
Bills-Patriots NFL Betting Preview
Buffalo lost a couple of games to begin November but now owns back-to-back victories, including a 28-25 decision at Detroit last Thursday. The Bills spotted the Lions the first seven points of the game but led 17-14 at the half. Buffalo later led 25-22, let Detroit tie it at 25-25 with just 23 seconds left but used one big play to set up a game-winning field goal with two seconds remaining.
However, the Bills came up short versus the spread as nine-point favorites.
Buffalo out-gained the Lions 401-326, out-rushed Detroit 164-96, and won both the turnover battle (2-1) and time of possession (31:29).
The Bills have now out-gained nine of their 11 opponents this season and out-rushed eight of their 11 foes.
Two weeks ago, Buffalo built a 28-10 lead on Cleveland and won 31-23.
At 8-3 overall, the Bills occupy the No. 5 spot in the AFC playoffs standings, just one game behind No. 1 Kansas City. And Buffalo owns the head-to-head tie-breaker on the Chiefs, thanks to that 24-20 win in KC back in October.
New England, meanwhile, just had a three-game winning streak snapped, losing 33-26 at Minnesota last Thursday. The Patriots gave up the first seven points of the game but battled back to take a 16-16 tie into the half. New England then scored the first seven points of the second half and led 26-23 into the fourth quarter but gave up the last 10 points of the game and lost.
The Patriots also came up short ATS as three-point dogs.
New England actually out-gained the Vikings 409-358. But the Patriots also gave up a 97-yard kick-off return for a touchdown in the third quarter and got screwed on what should have been a touchdown in the fourth, resulting instead in a New England field goal.
Two weeks ago, the Patriots held the Jets to just 103 total yards and won 10-3. Three weeks ago, New England limited Indianapolis to just 121 yards and won 26-3. And four weeks ago, they beat the Jets 22-17.
At 6-5 overall, the Patriots sit in the No. 8 spot in the AFC, just one game behind four 7-4 teams in the battle for that No. 7 spot.
On the injury front, both teams are banged-up on defense; most notably, Buffalo LB Von Miller is out after hurting a knee last week.
Common Opponents
These two teams have played eight common opponents so far this season; the Vikings, Browns, Lions, Jets, Packers, Ravens, Steelers, and Dolphins. Buffalo played those foes to 5-3 SU, just 1-5-2 ATS but +65 yards per game, New England to 5-4 SU, 5-3-1 ATS, and +22 YPG.
Bills-Patriots Recent History
New England dominated this rivalry for 20 years, but Buffalo is trying to turn the worm, winning four of the last five meetings SU and going 5-2-1 ATS over the last eight. Last year the teams split their two regular-season meetings before the Bills rolled the Patriots in an AFC wild-card game 47-17.
- Get more details: Bills vs. Pats Week 13 Betting Stats
NFL Betting Trends
- Through Week 12, home teams are 96-77 SU and 90-81 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Through Week 12, favorites are 109-69 SU, 77-98 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Through Week 12, home dogs are 35-35 SU and 42-27 ATS in the NFL this season.
Totals Report
- The Unders are 8-3 in Bills games this season, averaging 46 total points.
- The Unders are 6-5 in Patriots games this season, averaging 40 points.
- Through Week 12, the Unders are 103-75 (58 percent) in the NFL this season.
