The 2022 NFL season begins with a bang when the defending Super Bowl champion Rams battle the team that’s favored to win it this season, the Bills, Thursday night at SoFi Stadium. Los Angeles is trying to become the first back-to-back Super Bowl champ in almost 20 years, while Buffalo thinks it’s got a shot at its first Super Bowl title ever. And the oddsmakers seem to agree.
The Rams are actually lined as short home dogs for Thursday night. Here’s our homework on this contest, with our free NFL betting pick.
NFL Betting Lines
The Week 1 NFL betting odds opened Buffalo as a one-point road favorite over LA, with an over/under of right around 52. Early betting action then bumped the Bills a point and a half to -2.5 and the total to 52.5.
Bills Betting Preview
Buffalo is coming off a 2021 campaign that saw it play to within 13 seconds of a berth in the AFC championship game. The Bills began last season with an upset loss to Pittsburgh, won four in a row, then struggled through a 3-5 stretch, with a couple of head-scratchers against Jacksonville and Indianapolis. But Buffalo then won its last four games to win the AFC East for the second straight season. The Bills then took out years of frustration on the Patriots in a wild-card game but then lost an epic divisional-round bout at Kansas City in overtime after taking the lead with 13 seconds left in regulation.
Buffalo ranked 5th in the League in total offense last season at 382 yards per game and 6th in rushing at 130 YPG, although QB Allen accounted for more than a third of that ground game, which is how quarterbacks get hurt. The Bills also led the League in total defense at 273 YPG and ranked 13th against the run at 110 YPG.
Over the off-season, Buffalo added LB Von Miller (from the Rams) and graded a solid B in the draft, using two of its top three picks on defense.
Heading into this season, the Bills are lined as -225 favorites to win the AFC East, playing against an over/under win total of 11.5, which is tied with Tampa Bay for the highest number on that board. Buffalo is also a +300 favorite to win the AFC and the top choice on most Super Bowl boards at right around +600.
Rams Betting Preview
Los Angeles, meanwhile, won the Rams franchise’s second Lombardi Trophy last season. With new QB Stafford, LA started 7-1 last season, with a win over the Buccaneers, then lost three in a row to Tennessee, San Francisco, and Green Bay. The Rams then finished 5-1 to win the NFC West for the third time over the last five seasons. LA then beat Arizona in a wild-card game, outlasted the Bucs in the divisional round, rallied to beat the 49ers to win the NFC championship, then held Cincinnati in the Super Bowl 23-20.
Now the trick is to do it again.
The Rams ranked 9th in total offense last season at 372 YPG, although only 25th in rushing at 99 YPG, 17th in total defense at 345 YPG, but 6th against the run at 103 YPG.
Over the off-season, Los Angeles lost a few guys, including LB Miller, and didn’t make a pick in the draft until No. 104. And that guy’s on the IR.
Heading into Thursday night, the Rams are lined as +125 favorites to win the NFC West again, playing against an O/U of 10.5. LA is also the second choice on most NFC championship boards at around +450 and the fourth or fifth choice on most Super Bowl boards at around +1100.
Bills-Rams Recent History
These teams don’t meet too often, just 13 times before, Buffalo winning eight, the Rams five. Most recently, two seasons ago, the Bills blew a 28-3 third-quarter lead, then won it with a touchdown with 15 seconds left, 35-32.
- Get more details: Buffalo at LA Rams 9/8/22 Betting Stats
NFL Betting Trends
The last 11 defending Super Bowl champions are 8-3 SU and 6-5 ATS in their subsequent season openers.
Totals Report
- The Under bet cashed in 9 of 17 Bills games last season, which averaged 48 total points.
- The Over was 9-7-1 in Rams games last season, averaging 48 points.
- The Under was 9-7 in Week 1 last season.
