The Detroit leg of Thanksgiving Day NFL football betting action usually offers an uninteresting match-up because the Lions are usually so bad. But Motor City’s Kitties ride a three-game win-ning streak into Thursday afternoon’s battle with 7-3 Buffalo.
The Bills actually just won a game at Ford Field last Sunday. Now they’re back four days later to play what looks like an improving Lions team.
Buffalo’s still favored by almost double-digits for this one. Which way are we going with our free NFL betting pick?
NFL Betting Lines
The Week 12 NFL betting odds opened Buffalo as a 9.5-point favorite for Thursday, with an over/under of right around 52. Early betting action then goosed that total to 54.
Bills-Lions NFL Betting Preview
Buffalo just snapped a two-game losing skid by beating Cleveland in Detroit Sunday 31-23. The Bills, displaced due to a wicked snowstorm at home, spotted the Browns the first seven points of the game and trailed 10-3 well into the second quarter. But Buffalo scored twice in five minutes to take a 13-10 lead into halftime, then scored the first 15 points of the second half to go up 28-10 and held on from there.
However, the Bills gave away the cover at -8 when they allowed a Cleveland touchdown with 19 seconds left.
Buffalo got out-gained by the Browns 396-357 but won the ground battle 171-80, turned the only take-away of the game into three points and blocked a Cleveland field goal.
The Bills have now out-gained eight of their 10 opponents this season and out-rushed seven of their 10 foes.
Two weeks ago Buffalo blew a 27-10 third-quarter lead and lost at home to Minnesota 33-30 in overtime. Three weeks ago the Bills blew a 14-3 second-quarter lead and lost at the Jets 20-17. But prior to that Buffalo won four straight, including victories over Baltimore and Kansas City.
At 7-3 overall the Bills are tied with Miami for the lead the AFC East, although Buffalo trails the head-to-head tie-breaker with the Dolphins because of a 21-19 loss suffered back in Sep-tember. Buffalo also needs five more wins over its last seven games to play over its season wins over/under, which was 11.5.
The Lions, meanwhile, own their first three-game winning streak since 2017 after beating the Giants on the road last Sunday 31-18. Detroit, playing as a three-point underdog, scored the first three points of the game and led 17-6 at the half. The Lions then drove the opening posses-sion of the second half 56 yards to a touchdown to go up three scores and cruised home from there.
Detroit actually got out-gained by New York 413-325 but out-rushed the Giants 160-89 and won the turnover battle 3-0, creating a +14 points differential.
The Lions have now been out-gained by each of their last seven opponents. But they’ve also out-rushed two of their last three foes and own a +6 turnover ratio over that span.
Two weeks ago Detroit rallied from a 24-10 fourth-quarter deficit to beat Chicago 31-30. Three weeks ago the Lions got out-gained by Green Bay by 135 yards but won 15-9.
At 4-6 overall Detroit trails San Francisco by two games in the battle for the No. 7 spot in the NFC playoff standings. But the Lions also only need three more wins over their last seven games to play over their season wins O/U, which was 6.5.
On the injury front, Detroit CB Okudah is out and the offensive line might be down a couple regulars while Buffalo is banged-up on defense. Bills QB Allen is listed as questionable with that sore elbow but the oddsmakers seem to think he’s playing.
Common Opponents
These two teams have played three common opponents so far this season; the Packers, Vikings and Dolphins. Buffalo played those three foes to 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS but +88 yards per game, De-troit to 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS but -58 YPG.
Bills-Lions History
These teams, who’ve only met 11 times before, last met four seasons ago, a 14-13 Bills win. Josh Allen, late in his rookie season, quarterbacked Buffalo that day against Matt Stafford for the Lions.
NFL Betting Trends
- Home teams are 85-72 SU, 77-78 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Home dogs are 32-32 SU, 37-26 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Favorites are 98-64 SU but only 68-91 ATS (43 percent) in the NFL this season.
Totals Report
- The Unders are 7-3 in Bills games this season, which are averaging 45 total points.
- The Overs are 7-3 in Lions games this season, which are averaging 53 points.
- Last week was the first week this NFL season the Overs beat the Unders – 8-6. On the season the Unders are 94-68 (58 percent).
