Tom Brady and his Tampa Bay Buccaneers run into one of the few nemeses of his career, the New York Giants, on this week’s edition of Monday Night Football. Brady lost two Super Bowls to the Giants while with New England, but that was a long time ago; these G-Men aren’t quite the team that won those games. Tampa is lined as a double-digit favorite on the road. How are we playing this game with our free NFL pick?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 8 NFL betting odds opened Tampa at around -8.5 over New York, with an over/under of 48. Early betting action then steamed that spread to -12 and dropped that total to 45.
Buccaneers vs. Giants Set-Up
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS over its last six games, after beating the Raiders in Vegas last week 45-20. But that game was a little closer than that final score might indicate. The Buccaneers trailed Las Vegas 10-7 well into the second quarter before scoring two quick touchdowns to lead 21-10 into intermission. Tampa then allowed the Raiders to pull within 24-20 early in the fourth but closed the game out with three straight scores and covered as a four-point favorite.
On the day, the Bucs out-gained Vegas 454-347 and created the only turnover of the game, which they then turned into the TD that gave them a three-score lead.
Tampa Bay has now out-gained each of its last five opponents and out-rushed all seven foes this season.
Two weeks ago, the Buccaneers fell down to Green Bay 10-0 early, then scored the last 38 points of the game to win 38-10.
At 5-2 overall, Tampa leads the NFC South by a half-game over second-place New Orleans.
- Get more details: Bucs versus Giants Week 8 Match-up Stats
New York is just 1-6 SU on the season but 4-3 ATS, after falling at Philadelphia last Thursday night 22-21 but covering as a five-point dog. The Giants trailed the Eagles 7-0 early and 10-7 at the half, then used a 14-0 run to lead 21-10 with six minutes to go. But the G-Men, as they are apt to do, then pissed that lead away, giving up the last 12 points of the game, the previous six with 40 seconds left, to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, again.
On the night New York got out-gained by Philly 442-325, and while the Giants out-rushed the Eagles by a 160-96 margin, 80 of New York’s ground yards came on one long run by quarterback Daniel Jones.
New York has now been out-gained six times in seven games this season. However, the Giants have also out-rushed three of their last four opponents, going 3-1 ATS in the process.
Two weeks ago, New York picked up its first and only victory of the season, a 20-19 win at Washington. Also, the Giants’ last four games have been decided by a total of 13 points.
These teams have met each of the last three seasons, all close games, New York winning the previous two meetings by scores of 38-35 and 32-31. But of course, those games were played before Tampa Bay brought in that Brady guy.
NFL Betting Trends
- Tampa’s Bruce Arians is 70-44-1 SU, 59-51-5 ATS, as an NFL head coach.
- New York is 4-15 SU, 9-10 ATS with Daniel Jones starting at QB.
- Home teams are 53-51 SU, 46-57 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Favorites are 68-35 SU but only 45-57 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Double-digit favorites are 6-1 SU, 3-3-1 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Double-digit home dogs are 0-2 SU, 1-0-1 ATS in the NFL this season.
Totals Report
- Overs are 4-3 in Bucs games this season, which are averaging 52 total points against an average over/under of 47.
- Unders are 5-2 in Giants games this season, which are averaging 42 points against an average O/U of 46.
- Overs are 54-49 in the NFL this season, but unders are 23-17 over the last three weeks.
