Summer camps are shut down and the preseason schedule is in the books. A new season of NFL is ready to get underway with the games counting for real in the standings. All of the top online sportsbooks such as 5Dimes are gearing up for another big year of betting on the games.
Walking Out of The Gate
Betting the NFL regular season right into the playoff run to the Super Bowl needs to be viewed as a marathon. This is one of the most basic betting tips to keep in mind to avoid breaking out of the gate in Week 1 like you are running a sprint.
When it comes to betting NFL’s Week 1, you need to pick and choose your spots. Finding just one or two games that you really like makes more sense than trying to figure out what is going to happen in a handful of early matchups.
Nobody is sure what to expect from all 32 teams in their season opener. From the best professional handicappers in the nation to all the NFL expert’s bold Week 1 predictions, it is more guesswork than skill coming off a long offseason. There are no real takeaways from the recent four-game preseason schedule where many teams decided to rest their starters for every game.
Head-to-Head Divisional Matchups
One good starting point to find some value in the betting lines is any Week 1 divisional matchup. There is always a much higher level of familiarity among teams in the same division. A higher level of familiarity can lead to a higher level of predictability. Recent betting trends take on some added meaning and getting an early edge in the standings can be a big plus from a motivational standpoint.
Regardless of how each team ended up in the standings last season, one side could have a distinct edge against the other based on the recent history in a particular divisional matchup. For example, Green Bay has covered against the spread in 12 of its last 17 games against the NFC North rival Chicago Bears. The Packers are 1-9 SU in their previous ten road games, but they have an 8-1 SU record in their last nine trips to Soldier Field to face the Bears.
The Philadelphia Eagles have had the upper hand lately against the Washington Redskins in the NFC East. They are 4-1 both SU and ATS in the last five meetings. The total has gone OVER the closing line in four of the previous five meetings in Philadelphia.
Every divisional matchup in Week 1 of the new NFL regular season needs to be broken down on face value depending on all the pertinent facts and stats. Yet, there should be a heavier weight on recent trends in the overall handicapping process.
Pointspread and Total Line Movements
Unlike the rest of the NFL regular season, actual point spreads and totals lines for all 16 games on the slate in Week 1 have been available for quite some time. This gives bettors an inside edge to how they have moved since they were first released.
Some of the movements are minimal, but others could fluctuate as much as three or four points from the opening number. Sometimes there are extenuating circumstances such as injuries or holdouts. Sometimes the early betting money coming in has pushed the line one way or the other.
You should always be aware of all the reasons a line has moved to determine the value in the play. While a game on paper may appear to be a significant mismatch, getting an extra three or four points for betting the underdog could be the logical way to go.
