Online sportsbooks have a knack for taking the top headlines in professional sports and turning them into prop bet opportunities. Even though former NFL starting quarterback Colin Kaepernick has not played in the league since 2016, he was in the news this past weekend for his efforts to get picked up by one of the 32 teams.
Kaepernick staged a personal workout to hopefully show teams that he can still play at a high level. He also knows that some teams are in dire straits at the quarterback position, which can only help the cause.
Signing Colin Kaepernick
Trying to dispel the notion that the NFL has blackballed Kaepernick for his outspoken political views, the league orchestrated a private workout this past Saturday open to any team willing to send a representative.
Kaepernick decided to move the workout from Flowery Branch as the Atlanta Falcons’ team facility to a high school outside of the city an hour away. He also opened up the demonstration to both the media and the general public.
That move probably did not endear himself to the league’s big brass, most notably Roger Goodell. However, by all accounts, he still proved that he has the skills worthy of a spot on the roster of one of the league’s 32 teams. Whether he will actually get that chance or even want the opportunity to rejoin a league that has kept him out of the game for the last three years remains to be seen.
The betting odds as to Kaepernick’s future lean heavily towards him not signing with any NFL team before Dec. 1 at -1000. These odds reflect the strong possibility that he does not want to return to the NFL. Given the dire situation at this position for more than a few teams, he probably would have already been in an NFL uniform before Saturday’s show.
Still, there could be some betting value with this special prop, given the unpredictability of the situation.
The team with the best odds to sign Kaepernick is the Cincinnati Bengals at +350 and for good reason. At 0-10, this is clearly the worst team in the league right now. Veteran quarterback Andy Daulton has been benched, and his backup Ryan Finley has been equally as bad.
Conventional wisdom dictates that the Bengals will continue to ride out the string to get the first crack at drafting LSU quarterback Joe Burrow with the first overall pick. Kaepernick could be seen as an unwanted media attraction on a team that plans to lay low until next April.
The next two teams on the list at +500 are the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens. The Steelers make some sense with Ben Roethlisberger done for the season, but the Ravens are a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Head coach John Harbaugh probably does not want to do anything to upset the cart right now.
The 5-5 Carolina Panthers have gone all-in on Kyle Allen in the absence of Cam Newton, but the loses are starting to pile up behind an anemic offense. That adds some value to their +800 odds to sign Kaepernick.
Bonus Prop- Tom Brady’s Final Season
In a separate special player prop, odds were posted for betting on Tom Brady’s final season in the NFL. There is no current talk that he will be walking away from the game in the near future, but everyone knows that he cannot play forever.
The betting odds for this prop favor Brady playing through the 2021 season at +150. They move to +200 for 2022 and to +300 for 2023 or later. You could also bet he retires following this season at +1000 or after the 2020 season at +700.
I am going chalk in betting this prop. Brady does think he can play forever, but I am not all that sure his coach Bill Belichick would agree. His recent two-year extension goes through the 2021 season, and that is when I think he will call it quits.
