When it comes to betting the side in every NFL game, the reference point is the actual point spread between the favored team and the underdog. This is considered a straight bet on the side at online sportsbooks, and it accounts for the majority of the betting action football brings in.
Every bettor is also aware of the total line for each NFL game. This gives you the opportunity to bet on the OVER or UNDER on the total points scored. This type of bet also accounts for a big percentage of the amount of money wagered on the games.
The third betting option that should be a part of every NFL bettor’s weekly strategy is the moneyline. This gives you the chance to bet on a game straight-up with a bigger risk-taking the favorite and a bigger reward betting the underdog. The following example is a NFL point spread listing compared to a NFL moneyline listing:
Pointspread Moneyline Houston Texans: +1 ½ (-110) +110 Indianapolis Colts: -1 ½ (-110) -130
The point spread is giving a point and a half to Houston in this game as a road underdog against the NFC South Division rival Colts. The standard commission paid for either side of this point spread bet is 10 percent designated by the -110 next to the 1 ½ points.
The moneyline for this game dictates that you would have to risk losing $130 on a $100 bet the Colts win SU. If you bet the Texans SU to win, you would receive $110 on $100 bet if they do go on and pull off the upset.
In this particular scenario, it would probably make more sense laying the 1 ½ points on Indianapolis at -110 than taking the added risk of losing $130 on the moneyline. Yet, it would make more sense taking Houston at lower commission (+100) and a higher return ($110) on the moneyline if you believe the Texans will win this game SU.
The higher the spread for a game, the bigger the difference in the moneyline odds. For example, if the Green Bay Packers were seven-point home favorites against the Chicago Bears in a NFC North tilt, the money line on the Packers might be set at -400 with +300 betting odds for the Bears. This drastically extends the risk for betting the favorite and the reward for betting the underdog.
The sweet spot in the numbers for betting underdogs on the moneyline is when the point spread is 2 ½ points or lower. More than a few underdogs have lost games SU while covering with 2 ½ points or less. Yet, the betting odds are still in your favor to bet them winning the game SU with such a small spread.
Another big part of the betting strategy for betting NFL moneylines is to shop the numbers across a few different online sportsbooks. Going back to the moneyline example for the Texans at Colts’ game, a different book may have Houston listed as +115 underdogs with the Colts set as -125 favorites.
Winning an extra $5 per game or saving $5 on a losing bet may not sound like that big a deal. Start adding these small gains or savings up over the course of the entire NFL season, and it will have a noticeable impact on your online betting bankroll.
Sometimes you may not find anything you like betting the NFL moneyline, but it should still be part of your weekly tasks to break down the matchups. Given the high level of parity in the NFL across most of the 32 teams, SU upsets tend to happen every week.
