The NFL’s Super Bowl is the biggest single-day betting event of the year. The actual matchup is decided two weeks earlier in the conference championships. Moving through the first two rounds of playoffs, the two best teams from the AFC and the NFC advance to the title game for the right to represent their conference in the biggest game of the year.
This gives you three final chances to cash in on NFL games ahead of the long seven-month offseason. It does not matter what you have won or lost season to date. The conference championships leading right into Super Bowl Sunday provides more than enough opportunity to go out with a profitable bang.
You would think that each title game features the two best teams in the AFC and NFC. Sometimes the top two seeds advance, and sometimes they do not. The first tip for betting these two games is to gauge the current playing form of all four teams thoroughly. Getting a solid feel for how a team has played down the stretch run of the regular season and through the early playoff games can provide some valuable clues for their next outing.
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Most times, the home team will be favored. They just came off a win at home in their divisional matchup, and they will have the benefit of the home town crowd in the conference championship. That edge is hard to ignore, but it also leads to an inflated spread.
The online books already know that there is going to be a heavy lean towards a home favorite in such a big game. This can provide an immediate edge betting the underdog. If the road team has been tearing it up through its first two playoff games, as a heavier underdog, it does have a better than average chance to keep things closer than expected in this game.
Depending on each team’s overall form, once the spread climbs over seven points, the lean goes towards the underdog. Any spread less than seven points still leans slightly toward the favorite.
Tracking any line movements, as well as the betting consensus, can paint a good picture of where the betting money is going. If the current number is in your favor and your overall confidence level remains high, it is probably smart to pull the trigger on bet right now.
The other strategy is to track everything right up until kickoff to try and get the number you want. Games this big are bound to attract quite a bit of last second money. It could be enough to move a line a half point either way. More than enough money has changed hands over a half-point on the spread as well as the total line.
The ‘wait and see’ approach could backfire if the lines move against you at the last second. However, by tracking the numbers throughout the week, you should have a good feel for which direction they are headed.
Betting the games themselves is just part of the equation for the conference championships. Prop bet options also fill the board at your favorite online book. Props can be bet on at face value or as a reliable hedge for your other game bets.
For example, if you are going with the OVER on the total line, you might want to bet the OVER for total touchdowns scored. Just about every aspect of these games will be covered through various team and player props. Often you can find quite a bit of value in these bets if the game plays out as predicted.
