One of the most popular betting props for players ahead of a new regular season in the NFL is betting on which quarterback will throw for the most yards. The competition pits a few veteran gunslingers going up against a group of young guns coming off a very productive season throwing the ball.
Using the posted odds at 5Dimes online sportsbook, there is some substantial betting value to be found across the betting board.
Betting on The Favorites
There is a trio of quarterbacks at the top of the list as +400 favorites. You have the reigning league MVP Patrick Mahomes with the Kansas City Chiefs as one of those young guns going up against the veteran gunslinger Matt Ryan, who has made his mark with the Atlanta Falcons.
Rounding out the trio is the Indianapolis Colts’ Andrew Luck. The value in his odds has already been discounted quite a bit with a calf injury that could linger into the regular season.
Given what Mahomes was able to accomplish in just his second season in the NFL, there is quite a bit of value in his odds heading into this season. He threw for 5,097 yards in 2018 which was ranked second behind Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger, who led the way with 5,129 passing yards.
Mahomes has an excellent complement of weapons to throw the ball to for a Chiefs’ team that is one of the top favorites to win the AFC this year. If you are looking to go chalk with one of the favorites, he would fit the bill.
Ryan was third on last year’s list with 4,924 passing yards. What makes him a value pick as a favorite is a durability. Since taking over the starting role in Atlanta in the 2008 season, Ryan has only missed two starts. He has also posted at least 4,000 passing yards in each of his last eight seasons.
Finding the Best Value in The Contenders
Next on the list at +650 betting odds is the Green Bay Packers’, Aaron Rodgers. This is another vet that knows how to move the ball downfield through the air. He threw for 4,442 yards in 2018 to finish sixth on the list.
The Packers are trying to turn things around from a disappointing 6-10 record, and Rodgers knows that the clock is ticking on his future Hall of Fame career. The motivation is high, but his best days throwing the ball could be behind him.
Big Ben’s odds to top the list again this year are set at +750. There is little doubt that he will be throwing the ball all over the field again this season, but the loss of Antonio Brown as a top target drains some of the value from those odds.
The ultimate pairing between a vet and young gun next on the list has the New Orleans Saints’ Drew Brees, and the Cleveland Browns’ Baker Mayfield set at +1200.
Brees would top this list on a regular basis earlier in his career. He passed for 5,000 yards or more in five different seasons with the last one coming in 2016. His numbers dropped off to 4,334 yards in 2017 and 3,992 yards last season. The Saints’ reliance on running the ball along with Brees entering his 20th NFL season cuts into his betting value.
Mayfield and the Browns are the “talk of the town” heading into the 2019 campaign. The last time Cleveland made the playoffs was in 2002, but it is favored to win the AFC North, and it is third on the futures list to win the conference. With the addition of Odell Beckham Jr., this young gun could be the top valued pick on the board to throw for the most yards in the regular season.
