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Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots Week 14 Point Spread Pick

By David Schwab
Date: 12/12/2016 8:30 pm
Location: Gillette Stadium
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds



Point Spread: -7
Total: 45

This Monday night at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, the Baltimore Ravens face off against the New England Patriots in a battle between two teams jockeying for position in the race to the playoffs. Kickoff in this AFC tilt is set for 8:30 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.

Baltimore at New England Game Betting Overview

It has been a wild ride for the 7-5 Ravens going all the way back to Week 1. Following a promising 3-0 straight-up start, they went on to lose their next four games. With last Sunday’s 38-6 pasting of Miami as a 3.5-point home favorite, Baltimore is now 4-1 in its last five games. It has also covered the closing spread in four of those contests to move to 6-6 against the spread on the year. The total went OVER 41.5 points against the Dolphins after staying UNDER or ending as a PUSH in its previous five games.

Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco has been plagued with inconsistency the past few seasons, but he may be regaining his former All-Pro form at just the right time. He completed 76.6 of his 47 passing attempts against Miami for 381 yards and four touchdowns in what was easily his best performance of the year. The Ravens are ranked 12th in the NFL in passing yards per game (258.0), but their ground game falls to 28th with an average of just 89.7 yards. Baltimore’s defense has also regained its form this season with a points-allowed average (17.2) that is second-best in the league.

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New England is 10-2 SU on the year with a profitable 9-3 record ATS, but it still finds itself in a battle with surprising Oakland for the top spot in the AFC. The Patriots are 4-2 ATS in six home games this season and the total has stayed UNDER in three of their last five games overall. They have been able to cover in five of their last seven games when closing as seven-point favorites or higher.

The loss of All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski took a big chunk out of New England’s passing attack, but in typical ‘next man up’ fashion this offense rolled over Los Angeles last Sunday with Tom Brady completing passes to seven different players for 269 yards. The Patriots also got a big effort on the ground led by LeGarrette Blount’s 88 rushing yards and a score on 18 carries. The Patriots are eighth in the NFL in scoring with 26.6 points a game and they improve to third in points allowed (17.2).

Baltimore at New England Game Betting Trends

The Ravens have covered ATS in their last five Monday night games and they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight road games against a team with a SU winning record at home. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in four of their last five conference games.

The Patriots are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 home games and they have gone 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games played on Monday night. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven AFC games.

Head-to-head in this conference tilt, the road team is 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and the total has gone OVER in three of the last four meetings.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots Prediction

The current seven-point spread in this game has PUSH written all over it with New England getting the SU win by a touchdown. If it does happen to move a half point either way you may want bet accordingly. My “best bet” pick in this conference battle is the UNDER on the current 45-point total line.

I see each team’s defense really stepping up its game on Monday night to make life tough on both Flacco and Brady for all four quarters. 

Free Pick: Take the Ravens
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