After missing the playoffs last season both the Vikings and Falcons are shooting for a return to the post-season this year, heading into their Week 1 opener Sunday afternoon in Minneapolis. Who do we like here for our free NFL pick?
NFL Betting Odds
Week 1’s NFL betting odds opened Minnesota at around -4 over Atlanta, with an over/under of 47. Both those figures were holding steady in the early betting action.
Falcons vs. Vikings Set-Up
Atlanta finished a disappointing 7-9 last season (5-11 ATS), its first losing season under Coach Quinn. The Falcons started 4-4 last year, then lost five in a row to fall out of contention, as injuries to some key people took a toll.
Atlanta ranked sixth in the league in total offense last season, averaging 389 yards per game, but only 27th in rushing at just 98 YPG. It’s hoped a full healthy season from running back Devonta Freeman will boost that ground game. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons defense ranked just 28th overall, allowing 385 YPG, and 25th against the run, giving up 125 YPG on the ground.
Over the off-season Atlanta used its two first-round draft picks on offensive linemen.
A note of concern for the Falcons; wide receiver Julio Jones, who led the NFL in receiving yards last year with 1,677, is dealing with a sore foot and a contract dispute, and his status for this game is uncertain.
Atlanta is playing against a total wins over/under of 8.5 for this season.
Minnesota, meanwhile, finished 8-7-1 last season (8-7-1 ATS), five games worse than its 13-3 record of the previous season. The Vikings got to 5-3-1 heading into the far turn last year but a 1-3 stretch, with losses to Chicago, New England, and Seattle, proved hurtful. Then, with a wild-card berth on the line, Minnesota lost its season finale to the Bears 24-10.
The Vikings ranked fourth in the league in defense last year, holding foes to just 310 YPG, but came in 20th in total offense at 346 YPG and 30th in rushing at only 94 YPG.
Like the Falcons, Minnesota is hoping for a full, healthy year from a running back, in this case, Dalvin Cook will spark the running game.
The Vikings will play this season against a wins O/U of nine.
Minnesota owns a three-game winning streak in the series with Atlanta both SU and ATS. Most recently, back in late 2017, the Vikings beat the Falcons down in Atlanta 14-9. Case Keenum quarterbacked the Minnesota offense that day, while the Vikings defense held the Falcons out of the end zone.
Also, that game played way under a total of 48, as the teams combined for less than 600 yards of total offense.
NFL Betting Trends
Atlanta is 36-28 SU but only 28-36 ATS in four seasons under Coach Quinn. The Falcons are also only 1-5 ATS their last six games as road dogs.
Minnesota is 47-32-1 SU and an excellent 51-26-3 ATS in five seasons under Coach Zimmer. The Vikings are also 17-7 SU, 18-6 ATS in three seasons at US Bank Stadium.
Totals Report
- Overs played 9-7 in Falcons games last season, which averaged 52 total points.
- Unders played 10-6 in Vikings games last season, which averaged 43 points.
- Get more details: Atlanta at Minnesota Week 1 Match-up Stats
