Just when everyone was starting to buy into the notion that America’s Team was for real, the Cowboys were blown out by the Denver Broncos in a 30-16 finale at home. While 30-16 does not sound like a blowout, the Broncos actually led 30-0 before a pair of garbage time touchdowns made the final outcome appear more respectable. Simply put, Dallas played horrible on both sides of the football which resulted in their first loss since week 1 and only loss against the spread this season. Luckily, the Cowboys should have an opportunity to rebound on Sunday when they host the Atlanta Falcons at AT&T Stadium.
Despite a 1-3 SU start through the first 4 games, the Falcons have rallied to win 3 of the last 4 games. Most recently, the Falcons took down the Saints in a 27-25 thriller last weekend in New Orleans. For the first time this season, Atlanta has climbed out of the hole and is back at the .500 mark on the season. With that being said, I’m not exactly sold on the idea the Falcons are a “good” football team. Atlanta’s 4 victories this season have come against the likes of the Giants, Jets, Dolphins, and New Orleans Saints team that is without their starting quarterback. Nevertheless, Atlanta has some momentum and perhaps some betting value as nearly double digit underdogs in this interesting NFC showdown.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Trends
- Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in the last 6 games
- Atlanta has hit the “over” in 4 of the last 5 games
- Atlanta has hit the “over” in 4 of the last 5 games on the road
- Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games against Dallas
- Dallas is 7-1 ATS on the season
- Dallas is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against NFC opponents
- Dallas has hit the “over” in 6 of the last 7 games at home
- Get more details: BFalcons vs. Cowboys 11/14/21 Match-up Stats
Atlanta Falcons vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Analysis
In last week’s loss to Denver, QB Dak Prescott posted his worst performance of the season. Prescott consistently missed deep ball opportunities to CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper while hitting just 19 of 39 passing. Running back Ezekiel Elliott also struggled with just 51 yards on the ground and sustained a knee contusion which kept him on and off the sidelines. Needless to say, the Cowboys’ high-power offense was stymied in every way possible. For Sunday’s match-up against Atlanta, Dallas will have the perfect opportunity to bounce back against one of the NFL’s worst defenses.
Assuming the Dallas offense returns to form and/or avoids another disastrous performance, they should have scoring opportunities. Even with a backup quarterback, the Saints rallied for two consecutive touchdown drives in a near comeback effort against Atlanta last week which was mainly the product of poor defensive play. With so many options to cover against Dallas and the amount of talent the Cowboys maintain at the skill positions, this is a potentially nightmarish match-up for the Falcons defense that has struggled to defend the run and the pass.
In my opinion, the betting spread of this game will likely be determined by the Dallas defense. The Cowboys have given up a ton of yards this season but have forced several turnovers to offset the production loss. Atlanta still relies heavily on veteran QB Matt Ryan and a pass-oriented offense to move the football down the field. With Calvin Ridley sidelined indefinitely for personal matters, the Falcons have two main weapons in rookie TE Kyle Pitts and 2021 breakout candidate RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson. Defensively, this does not appear to be the most difficult match-up for Dallas as I expect Defensive Coordinator Dan Quin will bring consistent pressure after Ryan. With the Cowboys athleticism at the linebacker position, I expect they will be able to defend the outlet passes and disrupt the Falcons offense.
