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Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots Point Spread Pick – Odds – Free ATS Prediction

By David Schwab

The Atlanta Falcons and the New England Patriots highlight Sunday Night Football in Week 7 of the NFL season in a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl. Kickoff from Gillette Stadium has been set for 8:30 p.m. (ET) on NBC.

Atlanta at New England Game Overview

Atlanta will try and slay its demons on Sunday night following an unprecedented collapse against New England in Super Bowl LI. The more pressing concern would be the Falcons’ back-to-back losses both straight-up and against the spread to Buffalo and Miami in their last two outings as part of a four-game set against the entire AFC East with the New York Jets on the slate for next Sunday. They are now 3-2 SU on the year with a 2-3 record ATS. The total stayed UNDER in both of those losses.

After racking up a combined 87 points in its first three games, Atlanta managed to score just 34 points against the Bills and the Dolphins. In last Sunday’s 20-17 loss to Miami, the Falcons scored all of their points in the first half before blowing another big lead. While Atlanta’s overall stat sheet looks good on paper with an average of 24.2 points and 378.4 yards of total offense a game, those Super Bowl demons are starting to take their toll on the field.

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New England winning that world title in such dramatic form set the stage for even more success this season, but that is why they play the games. The Patriots did move to 4-2 SU with last Sunday’s 24-17 victory against the Jets, but they failed to cover as nine-point road favorites to fall to 2-4 ATS. They have already had to squeak out three wins this season to go along with those losses to Kansas City and Carolina at home. New England is 1-2 SU at home this season and it has failed to cover in all three games.

With Tom Brady throwing the ball all over the field to as many different players as possible, the Patriots are currently ranked first in the NFL in both passing and total yards gained. This has led to a 28.7-point scoring average that is the fifth-highest in the league. Switching to the other side of the ball, New England is 20th in the NFL against the run and dead last in both passing yards and total yards allowed. This defense is 30th when it comes to points allowed (26.5).

Atlanta at New England Betting Trends

  • The Falcons have gone 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games, but they fall to 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games coming off a SU loss. The total has gone OVER in eight of their last nine games against a team with a SU winning record.
  • The Patriots are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against a team with a SU winning record and they have gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a SU win. The total has gone OVER in six of their last seven games following a SU win.
  • The road team in this inter-conference clash has gone 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the total has gone OVER in five of the last seven games between the two.

Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots Week 7 ATS Prediction

Both of these teams have failed to live up their lofty preseason expectations through the first six weeks of the regular season and while I am not sure which one returns the closest to form on Sunday night, I do believe that this will not be the high-scoring affair that the Oddsmakers are expecting with a 55-point total line. I would lean slightly towards New England at home, but the ‘best bet’ in this one is the UNDER on that inflated total line.

Free Pick: Take the Under 55
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