Arizona used a last-second FG to defeat San Francisco 23-20 last week. Minnesota suffered their 4th-straight loss last Sunday in a 26-20 loss to Washington.
The Cardinals have worked all season to establish the run with middling results (109 ypg, 4.1 ypc). RB David Johnson’s success can be measured in game-to-game results more than month-to-month. He is averaging 4.3 ypc and is amongst the leading rushers in the NFC. The Vikings have played solid run defense on the year (97 ypg) and they better be ready for an attack that is trying to be more balanced this season than in 2015. QB Carson Palmer has had an up-and-down year (11-8 TD/INT ratio) but played well against the 49ers. Minnesota is amongst the league leaders in allowing only 212 passing ypg but will be missing top corner Xavier Rhodes for this matchup. WR Larry Fitzgerald had 12 catches last week (team-leading 68) and has never won a game in his home state. He’ll have plenty of motivation this week and has a top duo with him in WRs Michael Floyd and John Brown. Johnson is 2nd on the team in receptions and yardage and is one of the top receiving backs in the league. Minnesota has injury issues in their back seven and I think they will struggle to contain the many weapons in the Cardinals arsenal. Arizona has surrendered 27 sacks on the season and faces a good pass rush this week. If they give Palmer time to make his reads, the passing game could flourish.
The Vikings offense is in a free fall since they started the season 5-0. They have scored 56 points over the past 4 games as the running game has basically collapsed (70 ypg, 2.7 ypc). Arizona’s run defense has been good in 2016 and they shouldn’t need to commit extra players into the box to deal with the run. WR Stefon Diggs has set an NFL record with 13+ receptions in back-to-back games. He should see a lot of CB Patrick Peterson and has struggled in the past when matched up with elite corners. TE Kyle Rudolph has 37 receptions and a team-leading 5 TD catches but the Cardinals are yielding fewer than 3 catches per game to opposing TEs and zero TDs. QB Sam Bradford has done a great job of limiting TOs (2 picks, 2 lost fumbles) but is starting to feel the heat (24 sacks) as injuries have started to affect an o-line that was underperforming before succumbing to the injury bug. Arizona has 24 sacks on the season and like the Vikings, can generate a pass rush with just their front four.
Public Money Consensus
In this week’s matchup between Arizona and Minnesota the public is leaning slightly to the visiting Cardinals to win this game outright with only a +1 posted point spread at 64% confidence. The over/under bettors are also just slightly leaning to a game score under the posted 40.5 points at 60%.
