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AFC Odds to Win – Picks and Analysis

By David Schwab
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The long NFL offseason presses on and while the 16 teams in the AFC are busy getting ready for the start of training camp in late July in preparation for the new season’s start in early September, BetOnline has recently updated its futures odds to win this conference title in 2017.

AFC Championship 2017 Futures Odds Summer Edition

Sports bettors may look at the 2017 AFC Championship futures odds as New England against the field after last year’s run to a Super Bowl title, but the pressure to repeat as conference champions can get dialed up pretty high no matter how much talent any team may have. When it comes to betting on NFL futures, it still comes down to finding the best value in the numbers.

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AFC Top Favorite

The Patriots’ current betting odds to win the AFC again in 2017 are now listed at +220 after being set +250 right after this year’s NFL Draft, so the early money is still coming in on the reining Super Bowl Champs. This may be the safest bet on the board given that New England’s roster remains basically intact from last year’s 14-2 run through the regular season. However, I still point to the fact that the last time the Patriots won back-to-back AFC titles was in 2003 and 2004. Once you reach the top of the heap, the motivation to stay there can sometimes be hard to muster when you have such a big bull’s eye on your back.

AFC Top Contenders

The Pittsburgh Steelers appear to be the perennial bride’s maid in the AFC when it comes to preseason futures odds to win the conference title. They lost to the Patriots in last year’s conference title game and this time around they are +600 second-favorites behind New England again. The Steelers are probably the second-best team in the AFC when you look at the wealth of talent they have at the skill positions on offense, but I have to question whether aging quarterback Ben Roethlisberger does have enough gas left in the tank to take this team back to its first Super Bowl appearance since the 2010 season.

The third-favorite to win the AFC title this season at +700 betting odds is the Oakland Raiders. Last year at this time, this was a sexy pick for anyone looking for added value in the numbers. Now that they still went 12-4 last season despite losing Derek Carr at quarterback for the stretch run, there is some legitimate value in Oakland’s odds. The Raiders used the draft to bolster a defense that finished last season ranked 26th in the NFL in total yards allowed (375.1) and 20th in points allowed (24.1), while bringing Marshawn Lynch out of retirement to run the ball on offense. If both of these moves pay off, then the Raiders could be the team to beat in the AFC this year.

AFC Top Longshot

The last time that Miami finished above .500 before last season’s jump to 10-6 was back in 2008, so it is easy to see why there is some skepticism from the betting public when it comes to this year’s chances to take the next step towards a conference championship. The Dolphins’ odds to win the AFC are set at +2500, which appear to be a bit long for a 10-win team the season before. When you look at this roster, there is enough talent on both sides of the ball to seriously compete with the Patriots in the AFC East as long as six-year quarterback Ryan Tannehill can stay healthy and take a few more steps forward towards becoming one of the top starters in the league. Maybe Miami is my sexy pick this year based on the value in the numbers, but I still believe this team can back it up on the field.

2017 AFC Championship Prediction

It is too easy to concede the AFC to New England and unlike the NBA where the two best teams do meet in the Championship series every season, the NFL is still a league of parity where a few key injuries can derail any team’s season. The Raiders will not make the move to Las Vegas for a few more seasons, but I am rolling the gambler’s dice that they make the move to the top of the AFC in 2017.

Free Pick: Oakland Raiders +700
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