Heading into Week 4 of the NFL regular season, there has been quite a bit of movement in the futures odds to win each of the eight division titles. Some of the preseason favorites have lived up to expectations while others have lost some significant ground to the competition.
Betting NFL futures is like playing the stock market. Each team’s value rises or falls with each week’s results. With the regular season wrapping up the first quarter of play, here is a look at the best value in each of the four divisions in the AFC based on odds at BetOnline.
AFC East
The Patriots started the season as heavy -300 favorite to win another division title. Three wins later by a combined score of 106-17, and those futures odds have ballooned to -1000. While the risk/reward on this bet is prohibitively high, it makes absolutely no sense to bet against New England.
Some bettors might be tempted to take a flyer on 3-0 Buffalo at +500, but the Bills could be in for a big dose of reality this Sunday as seven-point home underdogs against the bitter division rival Patriots.
AFC North
The Baltimore Ravens are off to a 2-1 start in defense of last season AFC North title. They have a golden opportunity to create some early space at the top of the standings this Sunday as seven-point home favorites against the 1-2 Cleveland Browns.
The Ravens’ odds to win the division are -175 with Cleveland listed as a +200 second-favorite. With Pittsburgh (+700) and Cincinnati (+3300) still looking for its first win of the season, this does appear to be a two-team race.
If you do believe Baltimore is the best team in the division, bet it now since those odds will only go higher with a win on Sunday. If you are still on the Browns’ bandwagon, you should place that bet since a win on Sunday would even out the current gap between the two.
AFC South
The Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars were +200 co-favorites to win the AFC South this season with Tennessee (+400) and Indianapolis (+450) rounding out the list. The early results in this division have turned things upside down.
The 2-1 Texans are now the clear favorite at +100, but the surprising 2-1 Colts without Andrew Luck are also in the race as +175 second-favorites. Jacksonville’s early play at 1-2 has inflated the Jaguars’ odds to +650. Tennessee is 1-2 as well and bringing up the rear at +700.
This race is too close to call at this early juncture. A few wins or losses by any of these teams could have a major impact on the odds moving forward. The lean right now would be towards Houston as the best all-around team. However, if Indianapolis can keep winning with Jacoby Bissett at quarterback, the Colts would be the top-valued play.
I would not rule out Jacksonville or Tennessee in what could remain a tight division battle deep into the season, but both teams are going to have to develop much better consistency from week to week to stay in the race.
AFC West
This race came right down to the wire last season with both the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers posting a 12-4 record. Heading into this season, the Chiefs had the edge as -140 favorites with the Chargers second on the list at +200. Denver’s odds were set at +1200 with Oakland last on the board at +2000.
Kansas City has held up its end of the bargain with a 3-0 start. Behind a white-hot start, the reigning league MVP Patrick Mahomes has picked up where he left off. The Chiefs’ odds to win the West have jumped to -500.
Los Angeles has lost two of its first three games in a surprising start for all the wrong reasons. The Chargers betting odds to win the AFC West title have doubled to +400. The 1-2 Raiders are next at +2500 followed by the 0-3 Broncos at +5000.
Much like New England, the risk/reward on Kansas City is not that great. Yet, it makes no sense betting against the Chiefs.
