When it comes to NFL props, one of the most heavily bet player props ahead of the upcoming regular season is for the league’s Most Valuable Player. The ‘best of the best’ are the list, but only one player will cash a winning ticket.
When it comes to MVP honors in the NFL, there are actually a trio of news organizations that vote for this award including the Sporting News and the Pro Football Writers Association. When it comes to betting on this player prop at BetOnline sportsbook, the AP’s MVP will cash the winning ticket. Here is a look at where the best value in this year’s odds to win MVP is scattered on the board.
2018 MVP Top Favorites
New England quarterback Tom Brady has been a perennial favorite to win MVP honors and he paid off last season at +350 betting odds with his stellar performance in the 2017 regular season. This was the third time he has won this award in his storied 18-year NFL career. His odds to win back-to-back MVP awards this season have been set at +800 as the second-favorite on BetOnline’s board. Peyton Manning was the last player to win back-to-back MVP honors in 2008 and 2009.
The favorite on the board at +700 betting odds is Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers heading into his 14th season in the NFL. He is a two-time MVP winner and my top pick to win his third award in 2018. Rodgers missed most of the 2017 regular season due to injury, but he still threw for 1,675 yards and 16 touchdowns in six games. The stage is set for return to glory for the Packers after falling to 7-9 last season with one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game leading the way.
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2018 MVP Top Contenders
Carson Wentz was on track to win last year’s MVP in just his second season as quarterback for Philadelphia, but a Week 14 knee injury ended his run. Ironically enough, his backup Nick Foles went on to win MVP honors in Super Bowl LII in the Eagles improbably run to a NFL title. I like the value in Wentz’s +1000 to finish the job this season, but there is always a level of concern with any player coming off major surgery on a knee.
Next on the list is Russell Wilson at +1200, but I see a continued regression in Seattle to drain the value in his odds. Ben Roethliberger’s odds to win his first MVP award have been set at +1600 and there is some value in that number if Pittsburgh, as a team, can finally live up to its lofty expectations.
New Orleans’ Drew Brees and the Los Angeles Rams’ Jared Goff are also listed at +1600 to win MVP. Both of these quarterbacks were in contention to win this award last season and each gunslinger will be instrumental in how far their teams go this time around.
My top pick in the contender’s category would be Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan. The Falcons made a run to the Divisional Round of the playoffs in 2017 with Ryan leading the way. With all the right pieces still in place, Ryan could be poised to win his second-career MVP at longer +1800 betting odds after earning this award in 2016 when the Falcons went all the way to the Super Bowl.
2018 MVP Top Longshot
This year’s MVP futures is dominated by quarterbacks all the way to Arizona running back David Johnson as the 21st player on the list at +4000 betting odds. If you are looking for a longshot that does not play quarterback, I would probably go with Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott at +5000 in a return to the form he showed in 2016 as a rookie.
If you are looking to take a real flyer in the longshot category, take a close look at Andrew Luck’s +2500 odds to win. Heading into his seventh season as quarterback of the Indianapolis Colts, his NFL career is at a crossroads after sitting out last season due to a shoulder injury. He may never be the same player that threw for 4,374 yards in his rookie season, but if he does return to form it is going to catch the attention of the people voting for MVP.
