The NFL’s 2023-23 postseason kicks off Saturday afternoon in Houston when the upstart Texans, surprise champions of the AFC South, host the wild-card Browns for a wild-card game.
Houston emerged as the most pleasant surprise in the League this season, making the playoffs with a first-year head coach and rookie starting quarterback. Meanwhile Cleveland played through a slew of key injuries, then really started clicking when they called in a 38-year-old semi-retiree to take over at QB.
These teams just met three weeks ago, a Cleveland blowout victory. But the Texans played that game without their starting QB. Saturday’s game will probably play out a little differently.
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NFL Playoffs Betting Odds
The NFL wild-card weekend betting market opened Cleveland at -2.5 for Saturday’s game, with an over/under of right around 44.5. Both numbers were holding steady in the early betting action.
Browns Wild Card Betting Preview
Cleveland used a late four-game winning streak to clinch its second playoff berth over the last four seasons. The Browns then sat a bunch of starters for their regular-season finale last Sunday and lost to Cincinnati 31-14.
Now we’ll have another playoff game to add to the running “play ‘em/sit ‘em” conversation.
Cleveland only started 2-2 this season and later lost both RB Chubb and QB Watson for the season to injuries. The Browns tried PJ Walker at QB for a couple games and gave rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson three starts before stumbling upon ol’ Joe Flacco, who’s great play down the stretch saved their season.
Over the last month Cleveland won at Jacksonville 31-27, came from behind to beat Chicago 20-17, dominated this Houston team 36-22 (under extenuating circumstances) and beat the Jets 37-20, before tanking last week’s game.
With Flacco at QB the Browns are 4-1 both SU and ATS, averaging 29 PPG.
Texans Betting Preview
Meanwhile the Texans clinched their first playoff berth in four seasons by winning at Indianapolis last Saturday 23-19. Houston then won the AFC South title when Jacksonville lost at Tennessee Sunday.
The Texans won three games all of last season. Then they brought in Coach Ryans and grabbed QB Stroud and LB Anderson with two of the top three overall picks in the draft. Oddsmakers expected improvement, pegging Houston with a season wins over/under of 6.5. But nobody expected this much improvement so quickly.
The Texans started 0-2 and later sat at 3-4 but a three-game winning streak put them in contention. Houston later split two games without an injured Stroud, a key win at Tennessee and that bad loss at home to this Cleveland team, but got Stroud back and beat the Titans again, setting up last week’s high-stakes game with the Colts.
That game was tied at 17-17 midway through the fourth quarter when Houston drove 73 yards to a go-ahead touchown and held on from there.
The Texans actually got beat all over the stat sheet last week, including in rushing yards, which they lost 227-60. They just won the game.
So Houston is 9-6 SU, 8-7 ATS this season with Stroud as the starter at QB, averaging 22 PPG.
On the injury front the Texans are listing four starters on both sides of the ball as questionable for Saturday. Meanwhile Cleveland is listing WR Cooper, who destroyed Houston three weeks ago, and DE Garrett as Q. Bettors might want to consult later reports before getting down on this game.
Browns-Texans Recent History
These teams have met each of the last four seasons, all Cleveland victories. However, none of those games involved both Stroud and Flacco.
Three weeks ago the Browns won in Houston 36-22. The Texans played that game without Stroud but their real problem was their inability to stop the Flacco-Cooper aerial combo, which exploded for 265 yards and two scores.
Common Opponents
These teams played nine common opponents this season and came out nearly identical; Cleveland – disregarding last week’s meaningless game against the Bengals – playing 8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS, Houston 8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS.
NFL Betting Trends
- Home dogs played 44-52 ATS in the NFL this season.
- Rookie quarterbacks played 33-33 ATS in the NFL this season.
Totals Report
The Overs played 10-6 in Browns games this season, which averaged 45 total points.
The Unders played 11-6 in Texans games, which averaged 43 points.
The Unders played 147-125 (54 percent) in the NFL this season.
The Overs played 5-1 on wild-card weekend last season.
