Six teams from each NFL conference make it into the playoffs each season. Four teams get in by winning their division and the other two get in as a wild card. BetOnline has recently updated its prop bet odds for all 32 team’s chances to make it into the postseason this year and I have singled-out the three teams with the best value in their odds.
The last three seasons under the guidance of head coach Bruce Arians, the Cardinals have gone 34-14 in the regular season with double-digit wins all three years. They won the NFC West last season at 13-3 following a trip to the playoffs the previous year after finishing second in the division at 11-5.
Arizona’s betting odds to make the playoffs this season have been set at -180 for yes and at +150 for no. While there is some risk in the higher moneyline for the “yes” play in this prop, the value is still there when you consider that Seattle’s moneyline to make the playoffs is set at -350. Both teams return pretty much the same lineups as last season with no great loss of talent on either side of the ball.
The Seahawks’ odds to win the division this season following a 10-6 record last year are set at -125, while Arizona’s odds to repeat as division champs are listed at +135. The main thing to keep in mind that these numbers are a product of the betting public’s infatuation with Seattle more so than the actual gap in talent between the two teams, which remains minimal at best.
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Much like Arizona, the Chiefs’ fortunes have been on an upward spiral since they hired a new head coach following a 2-14 record in 2012. In his first three seasons in Kansas City, Andy Reid has compiled a regular-season record of 31-17 and his teams have been to the playoffs as a wild card team in 2013 and 2015 behind 11-5 records.
The Chiefs’ betting odds to make it back to the playoffs this season have been set at -130 for yes and an even-money +100 for no. What really adds value to the “yes” play in this prop is the fact that Kansas City is a +165 favorite to win the AFC West this season. Denver has won this division the past five seasons, but with some serious question marks at the quarterback position it has been listed as a +220 second-favorite to win.
Much has been made about the Broncos’ defense last season, but Kansas City was ranked ahead of its division rivals in points allowed in 2015 with the third-lowest total in the NFL. Alex Smith has proved to be a very capable starting quarterback under Reid and the Chiefs’ running game was ranked sixth in the league in yards per game.
If you are going to take a flyer on a team that has not been to the playoffs in quite some time, then Jacksonville fits the bill. The last time the Jaguars played more than 16 games in a season was back in 2007 when they went 11-5 to earn a wild card spot in the AFC. Their best effort since then was an 8-8 record in 2010, but the way this team has been stockpiling talent on both sides of the ball lately, this could be a breakout year in a very weak division.
The betting odds that Jacksonville does make the playoffs are set at +220 with a -280 moneyline that this postseason drought continues for one more year. Indianapolis is favored to win the AFC South this season at +110 with Andrew Luck healthy and back as its starting quarterback. Houston is next on the list at +220 followed by the Jaguars at +350.
What really adds value to these playoff prop bet odds is the difference in the projected win total for these three teams. The Colts’ total wins have been set at nine followed by the Texans at 8.5 and Jacksonville at 7.5. That tells me that Jacksonville might only need to get to nine wins to make it into the playoffs as a division winner.
