It appears that New England head coach Bill Belichick has all the plans in the world to go with Jimmy Garoppolo as his starting quarterback for the first four games of the regular season while Tom Brady serves out his four-game suspension by the NFL. The following are my top two picks for some of the prop bets on the board surrounding this unique situation.
New England’s Record – First Four Games
All the props posted in conjunction with Garoppolo’s performance have action as long as he does go on and start all four games. The first on the board is the Patriots’ win and loss record after the first four weeks of the season. The best odds at +125 are for a 3-1 mark, while the longest odds on the board at +900 are for a 0-4 start. The odds for an even 2-2 record are +150 and they move to +500 for a 1-3 start. The odds that New England runs the table at 4-0 are set at +165.
The Patriots will open the 2016 regular season on the road against Arizona on Sunday night, Sept. 11 as 5.5-point underdogs on the early betting line for the game. This could be a tough start for Garoppolo given that the Cardinals are one of the top rated teams in the NFC.
Next up is New England’s home opener against Miami and I would have to go with a victory in this one given its past success against the Dolphins on its home field. In Week 3, the Patriots remain at home against Houston in what could be a make or break game for this prop. The Texans can pose some real problems for Garoppolo in the form of JJ Watt and a defense that was ranked third in the NFL against the pass last season. I am marking down this one in the loss column for the Patriots despite the fact they are playing at home.
Garoppolo will close out his four-game run as starter against Buffalo at home in Week 4. In my opinion, this will be an attempt for the Patriots to even their record at 2-2 in Brady’s absence. The Bills have had very little success against their division rivals with Brady at the helm and I do not think that will change just because Garoppolo is under center. New England has had Buffalo’s number for most of Belichick’s long and successful tenure as head coach and his team rarely loses two-straight games on its home field.
Couple that with the fact that Garoppolo should feel fairly comfortable running this offense by now and it all adds up to a 2-2 record at +150 betting odds as the top pick in this prop.
Garoppolo’s Total Passing Yards – First Four Games
Once again, Garoppolo has to start all four games for the action on this prop to stand and barring any kind of injury I believe that will be the case. The best odds on the board for this prop are +150 for 751 to 950 total passing yards. There are graduated scales both up and down from this range with +750 betting odds for 350 passing yards or less all the way up to +700 betting odds for 1351 passing yards or more.
My top pick in this prop is 951 to 1150 total passing yards at some very favorable +350 betting odds. This works out to be an average of 238 yards a game on the low end, which sounds reasonable to me. The Patriots averaged 286.7 passing yards last season behind Brady and in the absence of a solid running game, this offense was heavily predicated on moving the ball through the air.
New England did very little to improve its running game this offseason, so Garoppolo should get every chance in the world to prove he can fill the void in the passing game. With players like Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman still in the lineup, he should have enough quality targets to rack up an average of at least 250 yards over his four-game stint.
