The Kansas City Chiefs have played in the last three AFC Championship Games, including a pair of victories in 2019 and 2020. They went on to spit the two Super Bowls they were in.
The updated NFL futures odds at BetOnline Sportsbook point to a fourth-straight trip to the conference title game. Kansas City is a +280 favorite to win the AFC again this season.
Given the plus odds and solid return on that number, going chalk with the favorite appears to offer the best value on the board heading into the new NFL season. Most of the pieces from the last two Super Bowl runs remain in place, especially at quarterback, where Patrick Mahomes has developed into one of the top players in the league.
The loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV should provide the necessary motivation to get back to the conference championship in an effort to reclaim the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
The biggest competition in the AFC this season should come from the AFC East’s Buffalo Bills as +700 second-favorites to win the conference title. Buffalo lost to Kansas City twice last season. Once at home during the regular season in a 26-17 setback as a 5.5-point underdog.
The two teams met again in the 2020 AFC Championship Game. Played in Arrowhead Stadium, the Bills came up short again in a 38-24 loss as three-point road underdogs.
With Josh Allen under center, Buffalo could be ready to take another step forward this season after going 13-3 straight-up in the regular season. The Bills strung together an impressive eight-game winning streak before losing the Chiefs to end their season.
The date to circle this season is Oct. 10 in Kansas City. If the Bills can find a way to pull off the upset, this game could mean the difference between home-field advantage all the way to the conference title game.
Third on the futures board at +900 are the Baltimore Ravens and the Cleveland Browns out of the AFC North. Since only one of these teams can win the division title, the two meetings during the regular season will be crucial. The first game is in Baltimore on Nov. 28, with the next showdown set for two weeks later in Cleveland on Dec. 12.
No matter which team gets the best of things this season to win the AFC North, I do not have either one getting past Kansas City or Buffalo to win the AFC. The top value on this futures board only goes two teams deep.
That said, one team that may offer some added value at longer odds would be the Indianapolis Colts. Playing in the wide-open AFC South, the Colts are very close +110 second-favorites behind the Tennessee Titans (+105) to win the division. This could create an easier path to the conference title game if Indianapolis can earn a Divisional Round matchup at home in its playoff opener. Indianapolis has +1200 odds to win the AFC.
The biggest addition coming into this season is Carson Wentz at quarterback. He will be reunited with Frank Reich as the Colts’ head coach in an effort to resurrect his career. Wentz played his best football when Reich was his offensive coordinator with the Philadelphia Eagles. When the Eagles won the Super Bowl in 2017, Wentz was a strong candidate for league MVP before he injured his knee.
