Most of the betting action on NFL games gravitates towards a game’s point spread. With a heavy public lean towards the favorite, most recreational bettors are going with the favorites, especially in the first few weeks of the season.
If we have learned one thing about betting the NFL over the years, it would be last season having little bearing on the upcoming season. You still have your elite teams that carry over from one year to the next. Yet, worst to first runs in division title races are relatively common.
As a true value bet, NFL money lines offer the ultimate risk/reward situation. You can bet the favorite straight-up without laying any points. However, the price you pay on a losing bet is far greater than the standard 10% juice.
NFL money lines offer a solid return on investment betting underdogs with a much higher return on an upset. The trick is finding the right opportunities to bet an underdog pulling off the SU win.
Adding to the mystery of betting early-season NFL money lines is a host of unknowns heading into the brand new season.
The first tip to betting money lines in the first few weeks of a new NFL season is concentrating on one or two solid plays each week. There are bound to be a few easy blowouts, and there are going to be a few SU upsets. The trick is knowing where and how to look for the best plays.
Once you find a few games of interest on the betting board, it is time to rely on your NFL handicapping skills to come up with those one or two ‘best bets’ plays.
You should never put too much emphasis on preseason results. However, some teams are going to look ready to start the season, and some other teams will look like they could use a few more weeks of practice.
Favorites that have looked sharp throughout summer camp have the best chance to make a strong start out of the gate in their first few games. You may have to increase your risk on the money line bet considering a higher spread for their games, but the probability of winning SU is higher as well.
For example, if Kansas City is a three-point home favorite, the money line odds on the Chiefs might be set at -150. The added risk could be worth the gamble given a good chance that Kansas City wins this game SU.
When betting underdogs on the money line in early season NFL games, a good starting point is focusing on teams getting points on the spread at home. Once you identify those teams, look for the ones that have a strong win/loss record on their home field.
Going through this exercise, you will probably find at last one home underdog that has a good chance to pull off the upset. Check the money line in comparison to the spread. If a home dog is getting seven points with a money line of +290, this could be a trap.
A more logical betting scenario would be a home team getting three points on the spread with money line odds set at +135.
The best money line play early in the season is home underdogs getting one or two points. Why pay 10% juice to get a point or two when you can probably get that team at plus money betting the money line.
