Louisville continues its pursuit of an ACC championship game berth when it hosts Virginia on Thursday night at Cardinal Stadium.
The Cardinals, aiming for their first ACC championship game appearance, are close to clinching with a couple more wins. They are expected to win against Virginia but covering a three-touchdown spread is up for debate.
NCAAF Betting Odds
The Week 11 college football betting market opened with Louisville as a 20-point favorite, with an over/under at approximately 51. Early action has nudged the spread to 20.5 points.
According to Sagarin’s CFB ratings, Louisville should be favored by exactly 20 points. How about that?
Virginia-Louisville Betting Preview
Virginia ended a five-game ATS winning streak with a 45-17 loss at home to Georgia Tech last Saturday. As one-point favorites, the Cavaliers scored first but then allowed 24 unanswered points, trailing 24-10 at halftime. They then conceded the first 14 points of the second half.
The Cavaliers’ defense allowed 514 yards to Georgia Tech, including 305 on the ground, and lost the turnover battle 3-0.
Despite a 2-7 record, Virginia was showing signs of competitive play before last week. The Cavaliers almost won against both North Carolina State and Boston College, covering the spread in both matchups. They then won against Central Michigan and pulled off an upset at North Carolina as 24-point underdogs. Virginia also covered the spread in an overtime loss to Miami.
On the injury report, Virginia’s QB Anthony Muskett (foot/ankle) is questionable for Thursday night. Backup Anthony Colandrea, who has played in four games this season, will likely step in if needed.
Conversely, Louisville is 2-0 SU and ATS in their last two games after a 34-3 victory over Virginia Tech. Leading by 14 points at halftime, the Cardinals extended their lead and secured the win and the cover.
Louisville began the season with six straight wins, including a victory at Notre Dame, before stumbling at Pittsburgh. They’ve recovered to win their last two games with a combined score of 57-3.
With a 5-1 conference record, Louisville is in second place in the ACC, one game ahead of third-place Georgia Tech. Wins in their next two games would guarantee their first ACC championship game appearance.
Both teams have faced Boston College, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina State this season. Louisville went 3-0 SU and 1-1-1 ATS with a +82 yard per game differential, while Virginia went 0-3 SU and 2-1 ATS with a -59 yard per game differential.
Virginia-Louisville Recent History
Virginia beat Louisville in three out of four meetings from 2018-2021, but last year, Louisville won 34-17 in Charlottesville, rushing for 200 yards in the process.
College Football Betting Trends
- Louisville is 10-0 SU and ATS in its last 10 home games.
Totals Report
- The over is 6-2-1 in Virginia’s games this season, averaging 56 total points.
- The under is 5-3-1 in Louisville’s games, averaging 49 points.
- The under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these two teams, often due to high totals.
