texas-longhorns-sam-ehlinger-2-600

Utah Utes vs Texas Longhorns Alamo Bowl Pick

By Loot
Date: 31/12/2019 7:30 pm
Location: Alamo Dome
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds



Point Spread: Utah -7
Total: 55

The Utah Utes take on the Texas Longhorns in the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio on December 31. It’s a fun game on New Year’s Eve with two teams that should come to play. For Utah, it didn’t end well, as a chance to win the Pac-12 and maybe go to the CFP were dashed in a December 7 loss to Oregon. But they can end on a strong note here against a dangerous Texas team that last played on November 29, beating Texas Tech, 49-24. It will have been over a month since they last played by the time they take the field at the Alamodome.

Not Jumping to Conclusions

What appears on the surface might not be that helpful. We see an 11-win Utah team that was on the cusp of some big things this season facing a 7-win team. We see clusters of losses in the second half of the season for the Longhorns. Only one of these two teams was who they wanted to be this season. By the same token, Texas has the edge geographically and perhaps morale-wise, as well. No one would say it on the Utah side, but to go from what they were envisioning before the Oregon loss to a bowl game in San Antonio against a 7-win team that ended the season on a 3-4 run might lead to a letdown scenario. At the very least, the Longhorns might be happier to be here.

Matchup Issues

Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger is a dynamite player and usually has this offense on the move. They can run the ball well, with Ehlinger a big part of that. A few things are concerning, however, with leading rusher Keaontay Ingram questionable. Even more worrisome is Utah’s run defense, which they are hoping resurfaces this week. Against Oregon in their last game, it most certainly did not—bemusing for a run-defense that was ranked first in the nation this season. Utes’ standouts on defense will need to show up, like Bradlee Anae, Francis Bernard, and others, including a back-end that has a lot of talent. Ehlinger, dominant at times this season, could find success through the air, though again, leading receiver Devin Duvernay is listed as questionable for this game.

Pump the Brakes

First of all, Utah would hate to end the season on such a sour note. This game actually means a lot and would allow them to reflect on what was a terrific year. A lot of stars lined up that led them to fail so dramatically to Oregon. One was QB Tyler Huntley having his worst game of the season. A similar showing seems unlikely here. This is a prideful bunch, and I would expect them to play close to their best, as one could rightfully expect the same from Texas. Huntley wants to make a good impression for potential scouts. One could reasonably expect him to perform better against a Texas pass defense that yielded an average of 306 yards per game this season while being the only average against the run. That opens up the door for a big bounce-back week for Huntley and a big game from Utah workhorse back Zack Moss.

Questions

It’s hard to gauge if some of Texas’ defensive stats are inflated from playing in the Big 12, where giving up passing yards is the name of the game. Conceivably, they could compete or at least hang in there against a sometimes-muted Utah offense. Or will we see a unit with a lot of cracks collapse to the balance of Utah? Is a Texas “D” that gave up 29 points a game just out of their depth in this spot? Could a greater spark or at least a higher ceiling on the Longhorns’ offense resonate here? Will the time off help key offensive pieces for the Longhorns to resurface in good shape to contribute or have widespread team injuries now stockpiled to the point where it’s too much too overcome?

Utah at Texas Prediction

OK, bad stuff out the way first—with the Utes not delivering with everything on the line, laying a TD against a Texas team close to home in a possible letdown spot seems counterintuitive. The smarty-pants play is probably Texas, but this a game where it’s easy to outsmart yourself. Injuries and a shoddy defense have taken what was a promising Texas bunch and made them quite average over the last stretch of the season. Utah is better on both sides of the ball, and I see it being enough to get the win and cover in the Alamo Bowl.

Free Pick: Take the Utes -7
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