College football’s Cinderella for this season is a Frog, more specifically, a team of Horned Frogs from TCU, who will challenge big bad Michigan in the first of two College Football Playoff semifinal bouts Saturday, this one at the Fiesta Bowl in Phoenix. Texas Christian came out of nowhere to make the CFP in their first season under a new head coach. The Big 10 champion Wolverines, on the other hand, are back in the CFP for the second straight year.
The betting on this game opened Michigan as nearly a double-digit favorite, but early action likes the underdog Frogs.
Which way are we going here for our free Fiesta Bowl betting pick?
Fiesta Bowl Betting Odds
The college football bowl season betting lines opened Michigan at -9.5 for this Fiesta Bowl, with an over/under of right around 60. Early betting action then dipped both the Wolverines to -7.5 and that total to 58.5.
According to Sagarin’s college football ratings at USAToday.com, Michigan should only be favored by 5.5 points for this match-up.
Fiesta Bowl Betting Preview
TCU, in its first season under Coach Dykes, finished 12-1, played 9-0 in Big 12 play but lost the Big 12 championship game to Kansas State 31-28 in overtime. Despite that gut-wrenching defeat the Horned Frogs out-polled Alabama to snare a spot in this CFP.
Texas Christian started 12-0, with wins over bowl-bound SMU, Oklahoma, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Texas, and Baylor. But there were close calls along the way. Five Frogs wins came by one score, one by one point, one in overtime and, five after trailing in the second half, three after trailing in the fourth quarter. All that fast livin’ caught up to TCU in the Big 12 championship game when they rallied from an 11-point, fourth-quarter deficit to force overtime but lost.
Michigan, meanwhile, played 13-0 this season, 9-0 in Big 10 play, and beat Purdue in the Big 10 championship game 43-22. So, the Wolverines are back in the CFP for the second straight season.
Last year Michigan reached the CFP semifinals but lost to eventual national champion Georgia in the Orange Bowl 34-11.
The Wolverines opened this season 3-0 against some weak non-conference competition, then steamed through their Big 10 slate, beating bowl-bound Maryland, Iowa, Penn State, and Illinois, then rolling rival Ohio State in Columbus 45-23. Michigan then pulled away from the Boilermakers in the second half of that conference championship game and covered at -16.
Eleven of the Wolverines’ wins this season came by double-digits, including eight of their Big Ten victories. Michigan’s biggest scare came against the Illini when they had to rally from a seven-point deficit in the fourth quarter, winning on a field goal with nine seconds left.
On the injury front, Michigan RB Blake Corum is out with a bad knee, but backup Donovan Edwards ran for 400 yards in the wins over Ohio State and Purdue. So, they should be OK at that spot.
TCU-Michigan By the Numbers
The Horned Frogs averaged 473 yards of total offense this season and allowed 385 YPG while playing what Sagarin rates as the 15th-toughest schedule in college football.
The Wolverines averaged 454 YPG on offense this season and held opponents to 277 YPG while playing Sagarin’s 55th-toughest schedule.
College Football Betting Trends
Including Wisconsin’s win/cover over Oklahoma State Tuesday night the Big 10 is 4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS the last two seasons against the Big 12.
- Get more details: TCU at Michigan 12/31/22 Betting Stats
Totals Report
- The Over is 7-6 in TCU games this season and is averaging 65 total points.
- The Under is 8-5 in Michigan games, which are averaging 53 points.
