SMU Mustangs at Houston Cougars Week 9 Pick

The Houston Cougars (3-4) will host the No. 16 Southern Methodist Mustangs (7-0) for a prime-time Friday Night American Athletic Conference clash on Friday, October 25th, 2019. Kick-off is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET and will be broadcasted on ESPN. Southern Methodist has won two of the last three meetings between these two cross-state rivals. Against the spread, the Ponies have covered in three of the previous four contests. Most recently, SMU defeated Houston by a score of 45-31 when the Mustangs hosted the Cougars in Abilene in 2018. Closing as a 14-point underdog, the Pony Express orchestrated an impressive outright upset.

Last week, we finished 2-1 in our selections. We fell prey to an outright upset in our Rice -4 pick when UTSA defeated the winless Owls, 31-27. However, both our BYU +6.5 and Houston +9.5 plays resulted in the underdog defeating Boise State and Western Michigan outright in their respective contests.

Southern Methodist Mustangs at Houston Cougars Key Injury Concerns

Neither Southern Methodist nor Houston have any emergent injuries to report to key personnel.

Southern Methodist Mustangs at Houston Cougars Overview

Southern Methodist Mustangs

The Mustangs continued to look impressive when they took the fight to the upset-minded Temple Owls and never gave them an inch to breathe. Closing as a nine-point favorite, the host Mustangs defeated Temple handily by a score of 45-21. SMU clearly would not be placed on upset alert against a Temple team that vanquished two undefeated, ranked opponents previously in the 2019 campaign. SMU is now 6-1 ATS on the year.

Houston Cougars

The Cougars step into this game off a win but looked pedestrian while attaining it. Closing as a 22.5-point favorite at kick-off, the Cougars were unable to produce a cover in a 24-17 win over the Connecticut Huskies when UH traveled to UConn on Saturday for a noon-time clash. The Cougars are now 1-3 ATS in their previous four matches.

Reasons To Avoid Southern Methodist Mustangs

Southern Methodist steps into this game priced laying the most points to Houston in the previous ten matches. When the Mustangs produced covers against the Cougars over their 3-1 ATS mark in the last four games, they were listed as 25, 23.5, and 14-point underdogs, respectively. As a result of SMU’s rising stock and profitability in this series, the Mustangs are all the more prone to an overlay. The public is more inclined to bite as the Ponies have been this year’s surprise team and has emerged as the top candidate for a New Year’s Six Bowl selection. 78% of the consensus getting aboard the Pony Express would suggest that this narrative is unfolding.

Reasons To Back Houston Cougars

There perhaps may not be a better time to back the Cougars in this series. After all, the Home Team has won the last four matches outright, and the Cougars are likely working with inflated points here. The stock on Houston took a tumble after it engaged in a dogfight with a UConn team it was expected to trounce. However, it was very well likely that the Cougars were looking past the Huskies in preparation for this game, given the magnitude of the contest. We expect a much different Houston team to take the field against the Mustangs, as this team has shown a penchant to play up to the level of quality competition. Two of Houston’s losses this season came against Washington State and Tulane in which both contests were settled by a possession accordingly.