The first real college football Saturday of this new season gives us fans and bettors a big one to watch and bet when Ohio State hosts Notre Dame under the lights at the Big Horseshoe. Both teams won 11 games last season, and both begin this season ranked in the top five. But the Buckeyes are favored by better than two touchdowns over the Irish. Here’s how we homeworked this contest with our free college football betting pick.
College Football Betting Odds
This week’s college football betting lines opened Ohio State as a 15-point favorite over Notre Dame, with an over/under of right around 59. Early betting action then bumped the Buckeyes a point to -16.
Notre Dame Betting Preview
The Irish played 11-2 last season, just missed the College Football Playoff, then lost a bowl game. Notre Dame started 4-0, with wins over Purdue and Wisconsin, then lost the game that cost them a CFP bid at home to a pretty good Cincinnati team. The Irish then won their next seven games, several in blow-out fashion, albeit against a pretty mediocre schedule, to reach No. 5 in the rankings. But they then lost Coach Kelly, who bolted for LSU, then finished by blowing a 28-7 lead and losing the Fiesta Bowl to Oklahoma State 37-35. Notre Dame replaced Kelly with defensive-minded Coach Freeman, a former Ohio State linebacker! This season the Irish return 15 starters. Seven starters are back on an offense that averaged 426 yards per game last season, including four along the offensive line. But they must replace their starting quarterback, last year’s leading rusher, and one of their top two receivers. And eight starters are back on a defense that allowed 360 YPG, including the entire secondary. With only four true road games this season and a cast of usual characters – Stanford, Navy, Boston College, USC – on the slate, Notre Dame is playing against a wins over/under of 8.5.
Ohio State Betting Preview
The Buckeyes also played 11-2 last season but lost the Big Game to Michigan, missed out on the Big Ten championship game, and then won the Rose Bowl. Ohio State struggled to beat Minnesota in the season opener last year, then lost at home to Oregon. The Buckeyes then pretty much rolled from there, winning their next nine games, seven by three touchdowns, and more. But with the whole season on the line, OSU lost the Big Game at Michigan. Disheartened and perhaps disinterested, Ohio State then trailed Utah in Pasadena 35-21 at the half but woke up and rallied to win 48-45. So the Buckeyes are 31-4 SU, 19-15-1 ATS their last three seasons under Coach Day. This season Ohio State returns 14 starters. Six starters are back on an offense that averaged 561 YPG last year, including quarterback CJ Stroud (44/6 TD/INT last season), RB TreyVeyon Henderson (1,272 yards), WR Jaxson Smith-Njigba (95 catches), and three along the offensive line. And eight starters return on a defense that allowed 373 YPG, including six of the back seven. With only four road games this season and eight at the Horseshoe, including Wisconsin, Iowa, and Michigan, the Buckeyes are playing against a wins O/U of 10.5. These teams are slated to meet again next season in South Bend.
Notre Dame-Ohio State Recent History
These two programs, separated by about a four-hour drive, have only met six times before, with the Buckeyes leading the all-time series 4-2. Most recently, in the 2016 Fiesta Bowl, Ohio State beat Notre Dame 44-28 and covered at -6.
- Get more details: Notre Dame at Ohio State Week 1 Betting Stats
College Football Betting Trends
- As an underdog, Notre Dame is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games.
- Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. the Big Ten.
- Ohio State is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games favored by less than 20 points.
Totals Report
- The Overs played 7-6 in Irish games last season, which averaged 55 total points.
- The Overs played 8-5 in Buckeyes games last season, which averaged 68 points.
