North Carolina State Wolfpack at North Carolina Tar Heels Pick – Odds and ATS Predictions

Betting action in the ACC this Saturday features the annual in-state battle between the North Carolina State Wolfpack and the North Carolina Tar Heels. Game time from Kenan Stadium in Chapel Hill is set for 12:20 p.m. on ACC Network.

NC State at North Carolina Game Overview

NC State’s climb in the national rankings was derailed with a 27-23 loss to Wake Forest as a heavy 19-point home favorite on Nov. 8. Its only other two straight-up losses on the year were to Clemson and Syracuse on the road. The Wolfpack moved to 7-3 SU with a 5-5 record against the spread by beating Louisville 52-10 on Saturday as 16-point favorites on the road. The total stayed UNDER 66 points in that game, and it has stayed UNDER in four of their last six contests.

Ryan Finley added one more stellar performance to his career as NC State’s starting quarterback with 316 passing yards and four passing touchdowns in Saturday’s win. He has thrown for 3,180 yards and 21 touchdowns this season as a big part of the team’s scoring average of 33.5 points per game. Kelvin Harmon has been his top target with 1,065 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 72 receptions. He caught seven passes for 100 yards and a score against Louisville.

North Carolina’s slide to 2-8 SU has been much more forgettable, but it has been slightly better ATS at 4-5-1. The total has gone OVER in seven of the 10 games, but it has stayed UNDER in two of the Tar Heels’ last three home games. They snapped a straight up six-game losing skid with Saturday’s 49-26 nonconference victory against Western Carolina as heavy 30.5-point home favorites. Their lone win in the ACC this season was a stunning 38-35 upset at home against Pittsburgh on Sept. 22 as three-point underdogs.

One of the most significant issues with North Carolina this season has been a defense that does not know how to get off the field. This unit is well down the list in Division IA (FBS) with a points-allowed average of 34.6. The offense is averaging 27.3 points per game with Nathan Elliott leading the way at quarterback. He completed 18-of-24 passing attempts for 308 yards and two scores on Saturday, but he was also intercepted twice. He has thrown for 300 yards or more three times this season.

NC State at North Carolina Betting Trends

• The Wolfpack have gone 3-0-1 ATS in their last four road games against a team with a SU losing record at home. The total has stayed UNDER in 17 of their last 22 conference games.
• The Tar Heels are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against a team with a straight up winning record, and they have covered in seven of their last 10 ACC matchups. The total has gone OVER in five of their last six games against a SU winning team.
• The road team has covered in the last five meetings with the total staying UNDER in four of those five games.