Date: October 26, 2024, 11:59 PM ET
Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI
Game Breakdown
In this Mountain West matchup, Nevada looks to cover the spread against Hawai’i in Honolulu. Both teams enter the contest with struggling records, but Nevada’s strengths match up favorably against some of Hawai’i’s most glaring weaknesses.
Key Statistics
| Metric | Nevada | Hawai’i |
|---|---|---|
| Points per Game | 23.3 (81st) | 13.4 (134th) |
| Yards per Game | 356.3 (86th) | 304.2 (115th) |
| Red Zone Scoring % | 95.45% (14th) | 73.33% (119th) |
| 3rd Down Conversion % | 50.00% (7th) | 29.69% (122nd) |
| Rush Yards/Game | 182.0 (38th) | 62.0 (134th) |
Offensive and Defensive Analysis
Nevada Offense vs. Hawai’i Defense: Nevada’s offensive balance, powered by a robust rushing game averaging 182 yards per contest (38th), matches up well against a Hawai’i defense giving up 156.6 yards per game on the ground. Nevada’s red-zone efficiency (95.45%, 14th) is a significant advantage, especially as Hawai’i’s defense ranks poorly in stopping drives on 3rd and 4th downs.
Hawai’i Offense vs. Nevada Defense: Hawai’i relies heavily on passing but completes only 58.25% (91st) of attempts. This inefficiency, combined with their inability to establish the run, plays into Nevada’s favor. Nevada’s defense, while allowing yards, excels in tightening up on 3rd downs and preventing big plays in critical situations.
Special Teams & Turnovers
Turnovers are a hidden factor that could swing this game. Nevada holds a slight advantage with a turnover margin of +0.3, while Hawai’i sits at -0.8. Nevada also averages fewer giveaways, creating potential for field position leverage. Both teams struggle with penalties, but Hawai’i’s 9.2 penalties per game (130th) might give Nevada an edge in hidden yardage.
Betting Trends & Insights
| Team | ATS Record | Over/Under Record |
|---|---|---|
| Nevada | 5-2-1 | 4-4 |
| Hawai’i | 2-4-1 | 1-6 |
Nevada is 5-2-1 against the spread this season and has consistently covered as an underdog. Hawai’i, meanwhile, is 0-3 ATS at home, with low-scoring performances leading to an impressive 1-6 record on totals. With both teams trending toward low offensive output, the under could be worth consideration.
Recommended Play: Nevada +2.5
With Nevada’s ability to exploit Hawai’i’s defensive vulnerabilities, especially in rushing and red-zone situations, expect the Wolf Pack to cover the spread in Honolulu. This game’s low-scoring trends and conservative offense further support the under on the 43.5 total.