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Nevada Wolf Pack at San Diego State Aztecs Week 11 Pick

By Keith F
Date: 09/11/2019 10:30 pm
Location: SDCCU Stadium
TV: ESPN2

Betting Odds



Point Spread: San Diego State -17.5
Total: 40.5

The San Diego State Aztecs (7-1) will face off with the Nevada Wolf Pack (5-4) in a Mountain West Conference match-up set to take place on Saturday, November 9th, 2019. Kick-off time is set for 10:30 PM ET and will be televised on ESPN2. Nevada won the last meeting between both parties in Reno in 28-24. In what was a pick-em market, the Wolf Pack would emerge victorious 28-24 over the Aztecs.

Nevada Wolf Pack at San Diego State Aztecs Key Injury Concerns:

As both teams venture into this Mountain West Conference collision, neither San Diego State nor Nevada has reported any injury concerns with respect to key personnel.

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Nevada Wolf Pack at San Diego State Aztecs Overview

Nevada Wolf Pack

The Wolf Pack snapped a two-game losing streak straight up and against the spread last Saturday in a 21-10 win over the visiting New Mexico Lobos. The Wolf Pack opened as a six-point favorite before they were bet down to a 3.5-point at kick-off. Regardless of where they were taken, Nevada took their backers straight to the cash lane.

San Diego State Aztecs

The Aztecs come into this contest on the heels of a bye. Previous to their week off, San Diego State edged out Nevada’s arch-rival UNLV on the road in a thrilling 20-17 win. San Diego State failed to cover, closing as a 10.5-point favorite. Failing to do so, ended a three-game ATS winning streak for SDSU.

Reasons To Back Nevada Wolf Pack

The “Wolf Pack are 0-3-1 ATS in the last four meetings in San Diego; The Favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five contests; The Home Team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six games”. These are several trends that will hard-sell the Aztecs in this spot and position them to be overvalued; so far, much of the consensus has bitten. 75% of the public like the Aztecs in this spot, and that leads me to believe that Nevada may be supremely undervalued as a result. Moreover, with Nevada boding just a 3-5-1 ATS record on the season, the Pack are more likely to take back a soft number, albeit takers will be disenchanted with their performance in terms of profits. This is where I urge backers to step in on the boys from Reno. Lest we forget, Nevada beat this team head-up last year so it won’t come into this affair with the mindset of an 18-point underdog. I expect Nevada to have a lot of swagger and ready to bring the fight to SDSU.

Reasons To Avoid San Diego State Aztecs

With a top-25 ranking next to their name, added pressure and attention will be paid to San Diego State. They are no longer just another team in the Mountain West but a prime target for some of the other constituents to fix their sight on. As a result of their ranking, the Aztecs are primed to lay an inflated number that often comes with a ranked team facing a non-ranked opponent. In addition to all of the aforementioned, the Aztecs are one of the “name-brand” teams in the Mountain West Conference. Not too long ago, SDSU was a two-time defending champion, and with their present body of work, expectations build and overreactions surmount. The line reflects that.

Nevada at San Diego State Prediction 11/09/19

Earlier this season, Nevada upset Purdue as an 11-point underdog at home in early September, so this team is no stranger than playing this role and succeeding while doing so. Neither side is known for the offensive acumen. For this reason, I do not suspect San Diego State to be able to build a large enough lead to generate a cover here. The ‘Tecs average 21.8 points per game (111th in the FBS) while giving up an impressive 14.1 points per contest (8th in the FBS). If San Diego State has an average day at the office, they will be nowhere close to covering. If offensive production exclusively is at the mean for SDSU, this would require the Aztecs to pitch a shutout to green up. That’s all a tall order to ask of any team regardless of opposition. Take the points.

Free Pick: Take Nevada +17.5
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