Memphis has looked awfully good in their two games this season, but Navy’s rushing offense could be a problem. Our handicapper has a solid take on this game and thinks that one team stands out against the spread.
We don’t immediately think of Memphis and Navy as “rivals” but they are, and they meet again to open their AAC slates Thursday night in BluesTown.
The Tigers are 2-0 on the season and favored by two touchdowns over the 1-1 Midshipmen.
Who do we like for our free college football betting pick?
NCAAF Betting Odds
The Week 3 college football betting lines opened Memphis at -16.5 over Navy, with an over/under of right around 46.5. Early betting action dropped that spread two points to 14.5.
Navy-Memphis Betting Preview
The Midshipmen played the college football spectrum to open this season, and not particularly well. Navy began three Saturdays ago with a rather dismal 42-3 loss to Notre Dame in Ireland, then came home and beat FCS Wagner last week 24-0. The Middies whiffed against the spread as 20-point dogs against the Irish, then whiffed again as 42-point favorites against Wagner.
Navy is playing under a new HC, after 15 years under the previous one, and a learning curve could be expected. But it hasn’t been pretty so far; the Midshipmen are -37 points against the spreads.
Against Notre Dame, the Middies defense allowed touchdowns the first five times it took the field! Navy then shut out Wagner, but Wagner’s just a bad FCS program.
The Midshipmen did return 17 starters this season from a team that played 4-8 last season, so perhaps when the learning curve wears off, this team might start playing some decent football.
The Tigers, meanwhile, are 2-0 on the season after disposing of Arkansas State last week 37-3. Memphis, favored by 21 points on the road, started a bit slowly but scored three touchdowns in five minutes in the second quarter to lead 24-3 at the half. The Tigers then tacked on a couple of scores in the second half to secure the victory and the cover.
Memphis out-gained the Red Wolves 389-230, out-rushed Arkansas State 150-64, and won the turnover battle 4-0. And that’s how you cover a spread as a three-touchdown favorite.
The Tigers opened this season with a 56-14 romp over FCS Bethune-Cookman. Memphis would have covered the spread that day at -48 but gave up two touchdowns on turnover returns, the second with just over a minute to go in the game!
The Tigers only returned 12 starters this season from a team that played 7-6 last season but still hope to make a run at an AAC championship game berth.
Navy-Memphis Recent History
The Tigers own a four-game winning streak against the Midshipmen by an average score of 29-15, going 3-1 along the way. Last year, Memphis beat Navy in Annapolis 37-13, covering at -4.5.
College Football Betting Trends
Navy played 6-0 ATS last year as a double-digit dog.
Totals Report
Navy’s game against Notre Dame three weeks ago played under a total of 49 mainly because the Middies only managed 169 yards of total offense.
The Tigers game against Arkansas State played under a total of 57 mainly because the Memphis defense only allowed 230 yards of ASU offense.
