Kentucky owns a four-game winning streak in the series with Missouri, going 3-1 against the spread along the way, but needed a minor miracle to beat the Tigers last season. Now the Wildcats find themselves lined as double-digit home dogs for Saturday evening’s SEC East match-up with Mizzou in Lexington. Who do we like here for our free college football pick?
College Football Betting Odds
Week 9’s college football betting odds opened Mizzou at -9.5 over Kentucky, with an over/under of right around 47. Early betting action then bumped the Tigers to -10 and dipped that total to 46.
Tigers vs. Wildcats Set-Up
Missouri is 5-2 on the season, 2-1 in SEC play, but coming off a disappointing 21-14 loss at Vanderbilt last week. The Tigers, playing as ranked 21-point favorites, trailed the Commodores 7-0 and 14-7, twice tied the game, but fell behind again early in the fourth quarter and could not respond.
Bettors who backed Missouri on the money line last week took a nasty hit at a price of -1900.
On the day the Tigers, who had won five games in a row heading in, got out-gained by Vandy 313-293, missed two field goals, threw an interception from the Commodores’ 9-yard line, committed 120 yards worth of penalties and allowed Vanderbilt to run the last six minutes off the clock.
Prior to last week, Missouri had out-gained every opponent this season and out-rushed five of six foes.
At 2-1 in conference play, the Tigers trail 4-1 Florida by a full game in the SEC East, with 3-1 Georgia in between, and Mizzou has to play both those two coming up.
Kentucky, meanwhile, is 3-4 on the season, 1-4 in SEC play, after falling in the rain at Georgia last week 21-0. The Wildcats actually played the Bulldogs to a 0-0 tie well into the third quarter, faded from there, but hung on just enough to cover the spread as 23-point dogs.
On the night, Kentucky only produced 163 yards of total offense but held Georgia to just 279 yards. Obviously, the weather played a factor.
The Wildcats had chances to keep last week’s game closer but came up empty on drives that reached the Bulldogs’ 9- and 24-yard lines.
Two weeks ago, Kentucky picked up its first conference victory of the season, 24-20 over Arkansas. So the Wildcats need three wins over their last five games to become bowl-eligible.
Tigers-Wildcats Recent History
As mentioned above, Kentucky is 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS over the last four games in this series. Last year in Columbia, the Wildcats trailed the Tigers 14-3 well into the fourth quarter but scored on a punt return and on a controversial play run with no time on the clock to steal a 15-14 victory.
College Football Betting Trends
- Missouri is 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS against Power 5 opponents this season.
- Missouri 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS over its last seven true road games.
- Missouri is 7-3 ATS its last ten games lined as a favorite of between 7-14 points.
- Kentucky is 1-4 SU but 3-2 ATS against Power 5 foes this season.
- Kentucky is 2-0 ATS since inserting wide receiver Lynn Bowden at quarterback.
Totals Report
- Unders are 5-2 in Missouri games this season, which are averaging 52 total points.
- Unders are 4-3 in Kentucky games this season, which are averaging just 43 points.
- Unders are 4-1 over the last five Tigers-Wildcats games.
- Get more details: Missouri at Kentucky NCAAF Match-up Stats
