Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Auburn Tigers (4-0, 4-0)
Mississippi State holds the edge in the recent rivalry with Auburn, winning four of the last seven meetings straight up, going 5-2 against the spread along the way. But the Bulldogs will play as underdogs when they take on the Tigers for an SEC West scrap Saturday afternoon on the Plains. Which way are we going here for our free college football pick?
College Football Betting Odds
Week 5’s college football betting odds opened Auburn at -10 over Mississippi State, with an over/under of right around 47.5. Early betting action then bumped the Tigers to -11.
Bulldogs vs.Tigers Set-Up
Mississippi State is 3-1 on the season after beating Kentucky Saturday 28-13. The Bulldogs took an early 7-0 lead on a defensive pick-six, led 21-3 at the half and held on from there for both the victory and the cover as six-point favorites.
On the day MSU out-gained the Wildcats 421-386, out-rushed Kentucky 241-154 and won the time of possession by a 33/27 split. Also, freshman quarterback Garrett Shrader, playing in place of injured starter Tommy Stevens, hit on 17/22 throws for 180 yards and ran for 125 more.
As of this writing, it’s uncertain who will start at QB for the Bulldogs this week.
Mississippi State opened this season with an underwhelming victory over Louisiana-Lafayette, then beat Southern Miss and covered as a 16-point favorite, then got upset at home by Kansas State. So the Bulldogs are kind of doing the Jekyll-and-Hyde thing so far this season.
Auburn, meanwhile, is 4-0 on the season, after topping Texas A&M in College Station Saturday 28-20. The Tigers took a 7-0 lead less than two minutes into the game, pushed that to 14-0 by the end of the first quarter and 21-3 early in the third. Auburn let the Aggies get back within one score with just over two minutes to go but recovered an onside kick and ran out the clock for the outright victory as four-point dogs.
On the night the Tigers got out-gained by A&M 391-301 but won the ground battle 195-56.
Auburn opened its season with a come-from-behind victory over Oregon, which has looked pretty good since then. The Tigers then covered as 15-point favorites over Tulane and as 36-point favorites over Kent State.
Bulldogs-Tigers Recent Rivalry
As mentioned above, Mississippi State is 4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS over the last seven meetings in this series, including a 23-9 decision last year in Starkville. The Bulldogs out-rushed Auburn that day 349-90.
College Football Betting Trends
- Mississippi State is 2-3 ATS over its last five true road games.
- Auburn is 13-22 ATS over its last 35 home games.
- The home team is 6-2 SU, 5-3 SU over the last eight meetings between these two teams.
Totals Report
- Overs are 3-1 in Bulldogs games this season, which are averaging 54 total points.
- Totals are split 2-2 in Tigers games this season, which are averaging 49 points.
- Unders are 6-1 over the last seven meetings in this series, which have averaged 45 points.
- Get more details: Mississippi State at Auburn NCAAF Match-up Stats
