The Michigan Wolverines head to Evanston Illinois to take on fellow Big Ten rival Northwestern on the grass of Ryan Field on Saturday, September 29th.
THE NCAAF LINE
Michigan opened as a 12-point road favorite in this Big 10 matchup with a total of 53 and as of Friday we’ve seen the line climb to Wolverines -14. The total for this game has gone the other way after hitting the board at 53 points it has declined to 46.5 on most betting boards.
Last Games: Michigan moved to 3-1 with a 56-10 win over Nebraska where they easily covered the spread as an 18-point favorite, and the total went Over. Northwestern fell to 1-2 on the season with a 39-34 home loss to Akron where they did not cover as a big 21.5-point favorite, and the total for the game went Over.
Set-Up
Since losing their season opener facing a ranked Notre Dame squad, Michigan has won three in a row. They throttled Nebraska in their last game, and the Wolverines have a balanced team that ranks tied for 22nd in points per game and 13th in opponents’ PPG.
Northwestern comes into this game with a heavy heart, as starting RB Jeremy Larkin has been forced to retire because of cervical stenosis. He leads the Wildcats with 346 rushing yards and five TD and also had 19 catches for 127 yards.
Michigan laid a 56-10 beat-down on Nebraska in their last game where their defense held the Huskers to only 132 total yards, and they rushed for 285 yards. Lead RB Karan Higdon has rushed for 192 yards in his last two games and galloped for 136 in the win over Nebraska.
Northwestern ranks a pretty solid 41st in the nation defending the run, but only 94th defending the pass.
The Wildcats have lost two in a row after beating Indiana in their season opener. The loss of Larkin is a big one, but on offense, Northwestern is led by a passing attack that ranks 20th in the nation in passing yards per game. Clayton Thorson passed for 383 yards in the 39-34 loss to Akron in their last game, but his two turnovers were costly ones.
Northwestern out-gained Akron 491 yards to 367 yards, but they did not have a great game on the ground, and they committed three turnovers.
Head to Head: These teams have not faced each other since the 2015 season where Michigan beat Northwestern 38-0.
Statistically against the spread No. 14 Michigan Wolverines (3-1 SU 2-2 ATS 2-2 O/U) vs. Northwestern Wildcats (1-2 SU 1-2 ATS 2-1 O/U)
On the season Michigan ranks 63rd in the nation in total offense and 3rd in total defense and Northwestern ranks 62nd in total offense and 75th in total defense.
Sagarin Rankings
Michigan: 89.30
Northwestern: 72.32
Injuries
MICHIGAN [
RB] 09/23/2018 – Chris Evans is “?” Saturday vs. Northwestern ( Leg )
[LB] 09/24/2018 – Khaleke Hudson is OUT 1st half Saturday vs. Northwestern ( Targeting Suspension )
[DL] 09/24/2018 – Kwity Paye is “?” Saturday vs. Northwestern ( Undisclosed )
[QB] 09/17/2018 – Jacob West is out for season ( ACL )
[DL] 09/11/2018 – Aubrey Solomon is out indefinitely ( Knee )
[P] 09/09/2018 – Brad Robbins is out indefinitely ( Back )
[WR] 09/03/2018 – Tarik Black is out indefinitely ( Foot )
NORTHWESTERN
(!)[RB] 09/24/2018 – Jeremy Larkin is out for season ( Undisclosed )
Miami at New England NFL Key Betting Trends/Angles
- MICH is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games
- MICH is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games
- MICH has an Over record of 11-5 in their previous 16 road games
- NW is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games
- NW is 20-7 ATS in their previous 27 conference games
- NW has an Under record of 38-12-1 in their last 51 home games
Get more details: Florida at Mississippi State Match-Up
Head to Head Trends
The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 games between these teams.
In the last 6 games between these teams at Northwestern the Under record is 4-1-1.
Next Game Michigan vs. Maryland
Northwestern @ Michigan State
