Michigan Wolverines (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) at Wisconsin Badgers (1-2, 1-2), 10/2/21
When: noon ET Saturday, Oct. 2
Where: Camp Randall Stadium
TV: Fox
Point Spread: Mich +1.5/Wis -1.5
Over/under: 43.5
Michigan is 4-0 for the first time since 2017, while Wisconsin is looking terrible so far, heading into this Big Ten inter-division bout slated for Saturday afternoon in Madison. The Badgers beat the Wolverines handily the last two seasons, but that seems an unlikely outcome this time, based on what we’ve seen over the first few weeks of this season.
Which way are we going here with our free college football pick ATS?
Michigan-Wisconsin Betting Odds
This week’s college football betting lines opened the Badgers as one-point favorites here, with an over/under of right around 43.5. Early betting action then edged Wisconsin to -1.5.
Michigan Betting Preview
The Wolverines are 4-0 on the season after beating an improving Rutgers last week 20-13. Michigan drove its first two possessions of the game 74 and 72 yards to touchdowns and led 20-3 at the half. But the Wolverines managed just 47 yards of offense and two first downs in the second half, let the Scarlet Knights get within one score early in the fourth quarter, held on for the victory but came up way short ATS as 20-point favorites.
Michigan got out-gained by Rutgers 352-275, out-rushed 196-112, and lost time of possession by a 33:27 split. But the Wolverines also stopped the Knights three times on fourth downs in Michigan territory and forced a turnover on Rutgers’ last-gasp drive.
This season, the Wolverines opened with a 47-14 win over Western Michigan, covering as 17-point favorites, then whupped Washington 31-10, covering at -6.5, then beat Northern Illinois 63-10, covering at -27.
Wisconsin Betting Preview
The Badgers, meanwhile, are 1-2 after losing to Notre Dame in Chicago last week 41-13. That game played a lot closer than that final score would indicate but in a very ugly way. Wisconsin drew first blood with an early field goal but trailed 10-3 at the half. The Badgers then scored the first 10 points of the second half to lead 13-10 early in the fourth quarter but immediately gave up a 96-yard kick-off return for a touchdown to fall down for good. Near the end, Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz threw two pick-6’s to create a somewhat misleading final tally.
Wisconsin actually out-gained the Irish 318-248 but lost the turnover battle 5-1, resulting in a -28 points differential. And while the Badgers defense held Notre Dame to nine yards rushing, thanks in part to six sacks, it let the Irish and their third-string QB drive right down the field for a touchdown when the game was still in play.
Wisconsin opened this season with that 16-10 home loss to Penn State, a game the Badgers basically dominated but pissed away with three turnovers inside Lions territory, two in the red zone. Wisconsin then beat Eastern Michigan 34-7, covering at -26.
So while the Badgers have out-gained opponents this season by a 397-210 per-game margin, they’re -7 on turnovers.
More Picks: Arkansas vs. Georgia Pick ATS
Michigan-Wisconsin Recent History
The Wolverines lead the all-time series with the Badgers 51-17, but Wisconsin is 7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS over the last 11 meetings. Two years ago, Wisconsin led Michigan 35-0 at the half in Madison, on its way toward a 35-14 victory, and last year the Badgers led in Ann Arbor 28-0 at the half on its way toward a 49-11 triumph.
Our guess is Saturday’s game will play a little closer than those two games.
- Get more details: MICH/WISC 10/2/21 Match-up Stats
College Football Betting Trends
- Teams ranked in the Coaches’ Top 25 are 61-10 SU but only 31-38 ATS so far this season.
- Wisconsin is 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS with Coach Chryst against Michigan with Coach Harbaugh.
Totals Report
The Under is 3-1 in Wolverines games this season, which are averaging 52 total points.
The Under is 2-1 in Badgers games this season, which are averaging 40 points.
Overs are 3-0 over the last three meetings between these teams, in part because of relatively low totals.
