Kansas State vs Baylor: Big 12 Battle in Waco
Close Games and Explosive Offense
Here’s the thing about Kansas State – they’re 2-3, but all three losses have been by a combined 12 points. We’re talking razor-thin margins. They lost to Iowa State 24-21, Army 24-21, and Arizona 23-17. These aren’t blowouts. The Wildcats are right there in every game, they just haven’t been able to close.
Last week they finally got one, beating previously undefeated UCF 34-20 at home. Running back Dylan Edwards went off for 166 yards and a TD on 20 carries, including a 75-yard house call. QB Avery Johnson threw for 168 yards and two scores. Kansas State ran for 266 yards total and finally looked like the team everyone expected coming into the season.
Baylor? They’re rolling. The Bears are 3-2 (1-1 Big 12) and just put up 612 total yards in a 45-27 win over Oklahoma State. QB Sawyer Robertson is having a Heisman-caliber season – he’s thrown for 1,713 yards and 17 touchdowns already, averaging 342.6 passing yards per game (best in the Big 12). Against Oklahoma State, he threw for 393 yards and four TDs, plus ran for another score.
Game Details
- When: Saturday, October 4, 2025 at 12:00 PM ET (11 AM CT)
- Where: McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas
- Watch: ESPN+
- Spread: Baylor -6.0
- Moneyline: Kansas State +200 / Baylor -240
- Total: 61.5 points
- Records: Kansas State 2-3 (1-1 Big 12), Baylor 3-2 (1-1 Big 12)
The Baylor Offense is Legit
Baylor’s scoring 34.5 points per game and racking up 504.2 total yards per contest (11th nationally). Robertson’s been the story – 17 touchdown passes through five games is absurd. He’s got eight different receivers catching passes, and RB Bryson Washington has 492 rushing yards and five TDs to keep defenses honest.
The Bears put up 612 yards against Oklahoma State and scored 45 points. They’ve scored 42+ in three of their last four games. When this offense clicks, it’s nearly unstoppable. Coach Dave Aranda finally has his team playing with the physicality he’s been demanding, and it’s showing on both sides of the ball.
Kansas State’s defense has been solid, allowing 26.5 points per game. That’s respectable. But they just gave up 205 rushing yards to UCF even in a win, so there are cracks. Against an explosive passing attack like Baylor’s, those cracks could turn into craters.
Kansas State’s Path to Victory
The Wildcats need to do what they did against UCF – run the football and control the clock. They rushed for 266 yards last week with Dylan Edwards and Avery Johnson both contributing. Johnson had 75 yards on the ground himself, and Edwards averaged 8.3 yards per carry.
If K-State can keep Robertson and that Baylor offense on the sideline, they’ve got a shot. The problem is Baylor’s averaging 77.7 plays per game with their up-tempo attack. They’re going to get their possessions no matter what. Kansas State needs to match them score for score, and that’s tough when you’re averaging 24.3 points per game.
The Wildcats also need to force turnovers. Baylor’s been sloppy at times this season, and Kansas State forced three takeaways against UCF. If they can create short fields and extra possessions, they can hang around.
The History Matters
Kansas State has owned this matchup recently. They’ve won the last two meetings – 31-3 in Waco in 2022 and 59-25 in Manhattan in 2023. Yeah, Baylor got absolutely destroyed in that 2023 game. The teams didn’t play last year, but K-State has to feel good about their track record here.
The all-time series is close too – K-State leads 11-10 overall, though Baylor holds a 6-5 advantage in games played in Waco. This is a competitive rivalry where anything can happen.
Recent trends show Kansas State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as road underdogs against Baylor. The Wildcats also went 4-2 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Markets have undervalued K-State in this matchup historically.
The Total Looks High
At 61.5, this total is begging for action. Baylor’s offense can absolutely get there – they’re scoring 34.5 per game and just dropped 45. Kansas State put up 34 against UCF. Both teams can score.
But here’s the thing – Kansas State wins games by controlling tempo and running the football. They’re not trying to get into track meets. Their time of possession is typically strong when they’re clicking. If they can grind out drives and keep Baylor’s offense off the field, this game might stay under despite the firepower.
Five of the last seven meetings between these teams have gone over, but that was when both teams were different. This Kansas State team is more methodical, more run-heavy. They’re not the 59-point team from 2023 anymore.
The Pick
Look, Baylor’s the better team right now. Robertson’s playing at an elite level, they’re scoring in bunches, and they’re at home. But laying six points against a Kansas State team that’s been competitive in every game? That’s asking a lot.
The Wildcats’ three losses are by 3, 3, and 6 points. They don’t get blown out. They’re going to be in this game late, and in a one-score game, anything can happen. K-State’s recent dominance in this series (31-3 and 59-25 wins) also suggests they match up well against Baylor.
