The 2021 version of the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” will be another highly prestigious match-up this Saturday when the top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs put their undefeated streak on the line against the Florida Gators at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. At one point this season, this Saturday’s meeting between Georgia and Florida appeared to have SEC East title implications. However, the Gators have dropped 2 of their last three games and are now just 4-3 SU on the season, with all losses coming in conference play. While the SEC East crown may be off the table, this is still an intense rivalry that rarely disappoints.
Since Kirby Smart arrived in Athens, the Bulldogs are 3-2 SU against the Gators, having won three of the last four meetings. However, Florida’s biggest win last season was knocking off the 5th ranked Bulldogs in a surprising 44-28 upset. Obviously, Florida is not as talented as the 2020 team, which featured Kyle Trask, Kyle Pitts, and Kadarius Toney. Instead of an elite passing attack, this season’s Gators have been committed to the ground attack with the dual-threat running capability of both quarterbacks in Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson. The problem for Florida will be the running attack is going to face an uphill challenge this week against the best defense in college football. If Georgia can stymie Florida’s running attack, this 14.5 point betting spread could be in jeopardy.
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators Betting Trends
- The Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in the last seven games
- The Bulldogs are 10-0 SU in the last ten games
- The Bulldogs have hit the “over” in four of the last five games against SEC East opponents.
- Florida is 13-7 SU in the last 20 games.
- Florida is 2-5 SU in the last seven games against SEC East opponents
- Florida has hit the “under” in the previous six games against SEC East opponents
- Florida is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven games as underdogs
- Get more details: Georgia vs. Florida 10/28/21 Betting Stats
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators Betting Analysis
I believe match-ups are everything when it comes to handicapping college football games, and this is one of those scenarios where I just don’t see many paths to success for Florida’s offense based primarily on those match-ups. The Bulldogs have been downright outstanding on the defensive side of the football allowing just 6.6 points per game which is one of the best marks in the modern era. Against the run, Georgia has allowed just 62 yards per game which includes a schedule of opponents that are notorious for putting heavy emphasis on running the football.
For transparency, Georgia’s offense does not have the quick-striking big-play threats that we have seen from the likes of Alabama, Oklahoma, and Clemson in recent years. QB Stetson Bennett is a glorified game manager that is most dangerous off the play-action. RB Zamir White has next-level talent but has just 400 yards on the entire season. Needless to say, Georgia is not posting huge numbers on the offensive side of the football, but they don’t really have to when the defense is holding opponents to just 6 points per game. Therefore if we are breaking down this 14.5 point spread, the main question is can Florida find enough firepower on offense to put pressure on Georgia’s offense? Unfortunately, I just don’t see it happening. QB Emory Jones remains the starter for the Gators, and his passing talent is very limited. QB Anthony Richardson is the more explosive player but does not have the experience yet to lead the offense with confidence. Therefore, this match-up is basically Florida’s rushing offense against Georgia’s run defense. As a result, I am going to take Georgia every time in that match-up.
