Group of 5 powers breaking in new head coaches meet when Central Florida hosts Boise State for a national TV season opener Thursday, Sept. 2 down in Orlando. The Knights just lost their head coach to Tennessee, replacing him with former Auburn HC Gus Malzahn, while the Broncos just lost their HC to Auburn, replacing him with BSU alum and former linebacker Andy Avalos.
Both these teams should be in the running this season for that Group of 5 New Year’s Day bowl berth, and this game might well play a part in that.
Who do we like here for our free Week 1 college football ATS pick?
The Betting
Week 1 college football betting lines opened Central Florida at -4 over Boise State, with an over/under of right around 71. Early betting action bumped the Knights to -5 and dropped that total to 69.5. Any bettors out there thinking the Broncos might win this game outright could get around +160 on the college football money line.
Boise State-Central Florida College Football Betting Preview
This year, the Broncos return 17 starters from a team that played 5-2 last year, lost the Mountain West championship game, and then sat out the bowl season. Boise State, playing through a ton of covid-related bullshit the previous season, started 2-0, then got blown out by BYU. The Broncos recovered to win their next three games to reach the MWC title tilt but, playing shorthanded, lost to San Jose State 34-20. The team then opted not to play in a bowl, ending Boise State’s 18-season bowl streak. Over the off-season Coach, Harsin left Boise for Auburn, so the new HC is former Bronco linebacker Avalos, who served as a BSU assistant for five seasons, then as Oregon’s DC the last two seasons. Nine starters are back on a Boise State offense that only averaged 349 yards per game last year, including sophomore QB Hank Bachmeier (13 career starts), WR Khalil Shakir (All-MWC previous year), and four along the offensive line. And eight starters are back from a defense that allowed 373 YPG last year, including six of the front seven. So we expect the Broncos to improve on both those YPG figures this season. The Knights, meanwhile, also return 17 starters this season from a team that played 6-4 and lost a bowl game last year. Last year, Central Florida started 2-0 and reached No. 11 in the rankings, then lost back-to-back games to Tulsa (blowing a 23-5 lead) and Memphis (blowing a 49-37 lead). The Knights then won three in a row, then lost by a field goal at Cincinnati, which was ranked No. 7 at the time. UCF then beat South Florida but lost badly to BYU in a bowl. Over the off-season Coach Heupel left Central Florida for Tennessee, so the Knights’ new HC is Coach Malzahn, who had a good run at Auburn over the last eight seasons. Eight starters are back from a Central Florida offense that averaged 568 YPG last season, including sophomore QB Dillon Gabriel (22 career starts) and the entire offensive line. And nine starters are back on defense, although that unit gave up 492 YPG last year, in part thanks to injuries and opt-outs. We definitely expect improvement on that defensive number this season. This will be the first-ever meeting between these two programs.
Boise State-Central Florida College Football Betting Trends
- The Broncos are 29-9 SU, 25-13 ATS over their last 38 true road games.
- The Knights are 23-2 SU, 13-11 ATS over their last 25 home games.
- The Broncos are 5-2 ATS over their last seven games as an underdog.
- The Knights are 9-6 ATS their last 15 games favored by single-digits.
Totals Report
Overs played 5-2 in Broncos games last season, which averaged 61 total points. Overs played 6-4 in Knights games last season, which averaged 75 points.
