Saturday, Nov 22 • 1:00 PM ET • Arizona Stadium (TNT). Market sits around Wildcats -7 with a 62.5 total. Turnover gap, third-down splits, and pace shape the angles.
Baylor vs Arizona — Efficiency & Matchup Preview
Models lean Arizona at home. Baylor’s offense averages 0.414 points per play (54th), while Arizona’s defense allows 0.320 PPP (32nd). That gap is meaningful, especially if drives reach the red zone.
Key Efficiency Levers
- Points per play: BU 0.414 O vs UA 0.320 D → edge to Arizona’s defense.
- Yards per point (team lens): UA 12.63 on O / 15.08 on D; BU 14.0 on O / 12.31 on D. Net favors Arizona by a couple of points in baseline models.
- Third down: Baylor converts 38.9% (69th) vs Arizona D allows 35.8% (36th) → drive-stall risk for BU.
- Havoc/turnovers: Arizona +0.9 per game (top-15); Baylor -1.3 (bottom tier). Turnover gap is the biggest single driver.
Style & Matchups
- Yards per play: UA defense 4.6 YPP (#14 conf-adj) vs BU offense 6.0 YPP (#34) → step up for Baylor.
- Run game: BU 4.0 YPC vs UA allows 4.0 YPC → mostly neutral.
- Pass game: Baylor throws often (~58%); Arizona allows 5.6 YPA (elite rate). Stylistic edge to UA.
- Pace: UA ~70.9 plays/gm; BU ~77.8 → Arizona more comfortable controlling tempo.
Trends & Context
- ATS: Arizona 6–4 ATS; Baylor 2–8 ATS.
- Home/Road ATS: Arizona 4–2 at home; Baylor 1–3 away.
- Totals: UA has leaned Under at home; BU’s road totals have trended Over historically—tug-of-war vs 62.5.
