Oklahoma and Baylor will play not just for the Big 12 championship Saturday afternoon at JerryWorld but also perhaps for a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Sooners just beat the Bears three weeks ago but had to come from way behind to do it and couldn’t cover a double-digit spread. But the spread on this game is a couple of points friendlier. Who do we like here for our free college football pick?
College Football Betting Odds
College football’s Big 12 championship game betting odds opened Oklahoma at -9 over Baylor, with an over/under of 61. Early betting action then bumped that total to 62.
Bears vs. Sooners Set-Up
Baylor is 2-0 both SU and ATS since losing to Oklahoma last month, after crushing Kansas previous week 61-6. The Bears led 21-0 after one quarter, 34-0 at the half and 48-0 before allowing the Jayhawks to hit the board, on their way to the easy win and cover as 14-point favorites.
On the day Baylor out-gained Kansas 507-280, out-rushed the Jayhawks 264-161 and won the turnover battle 6-1.
Two weeks ago, the Bears topped Texas 24-10, covering at -4.
However, Baylor’s actually been out-rushed three times over its last four games.
At 11-1 overall, the Bears could conceivably make the CFP with a win Saturday and a little help from elsewhere.
Oklahoma, meanwhile, is 4-0 SU but only 1-3 ATS since suffering its only loss of the season to Kansas State. Last week the Sooners defeated rival Oklahoma State in the Bedlam Bowl 34-16, covering as 14-point favorites.
OU only led the Cowboys 20-16 late into the third quarter but scored the last two touchdowns of the game for the win and the money.
On the night, the Sooners out-gained OSU 450-335, won the ground battle 283-128 and held a 34:26 edge in time of possession.
So Oklahoma has out-gained every opponent this season, most by large margins, and out-rushed 11 of 12 foes.
However, the Sooners are only 1-3 ATS over their last four games because they couldn’t cover 14 points against Iowa State, 11 points against Baylor, or 19 points against TCU.
But at 11-1 overall, the Sooners also retain a chance of making the CFP, and style points here might count.
Bears-Sooners Recent History
Oklahoma owns a five-game winning streak in the rivalry with Baylor, going 3-2 ATS along the way. Three weeks ago, the Sooners rallied like hell to beat the previously unbeaten Bears 34-31 in Waco, although Baylor hung on for the cover as an 11-point underdog.
The Bears led that game 31-10 at halftime, then allowed the Sooners to win the second half 24-0. On the night Oklahoma out-gained Baylor 525-307, out-rushed the Bears 228-113, made 34 first downs to 18 for Baylor and dominated time of possession by a 41:19 split.
College Football Betting Trends
- Baylor is 3-0 ATS this season as an underdog.
- Oklahoma is 1-3 ATS this season when favored by two touchdowns or less.
- In match-ups between teams ranked in the AP Top 25 this season, the higher-ranked outfits are 27-11 SU but only 16-22 ATS.
Totals Report
- Totals are split 6-6 in Bears games this season, which are averaging 55 total points.
- Unders are 5-6-1 in Sooners games this season, even though they’re averaging a healthy 69 points. Obviously, Oklahoma is going up against some large totals again this season.
- Overs are 6-4 over the last ten games in the series between these two teams.
- Get more details: Baylor vs Oklahoma NCAAF Match-up Stats
