Outlook for Saturday Night Kickoff
Baylor takes their undefeated record on the road in this Big 12 showdown to face a Kansas State team that dropped out of the top 25 suffering their first loss of the season in their last game. The Bears got their first conference win of the season in their previous game in a 23-21 home win over Iowa State and this game facing Kansas State may be their biggest test so far. They are a balanced team but did not play a tough early-season schedule with three wins over Stephen F Austin, UTSA, and Rice.
Kansas State lost to Oklahoma State in their last game 26-13 where they were outgained 526 yards to 244 yards and gave up 373 rushing yards. They are a run-first team that ranks 17th in the nation in rushing yards per game and also has a solid defense that is giving up an average of only 16 ppg. The forecast calls for rain in this game, which would be an advantage for the Wildcats since they have a solid ground game and do not air it out often only ranking 117th in the nation in passing yards per game.
Last season at Baylor the Bears beat the Wildcats 37-34. The last time these two teams met at Kansas State in the 2017 season, the Wildcats beat the Bears 33-20 where they rushed for 225 yards.
How the Public is Betting the Baylor vs. Kansas State Game
The public has backed Baylor in this game so far, as they opened as 3.5-point underdogs and as of Wednesday morning are now two-point underdogs. The total opened at 51.5 and has gone down slightly to 50.5.
Injury Concerns
Baylor:
Baylor comes into this game relatively healthy with no significant injuries to report.
Kansas State:
WR Malik Knowles is listed as questionable for this game, and LB Cody Fletcher is out indefinitely.
When Baylor Has the Ball
Baylor has a balanced offense that ranks 30th in the nation in passing yards per game and 50th in rushing yards per game. In their 23-21 win over Iowa State in their last match, they blew a 20-point lead but kicked a field goal with 21 seconds left to get the win. Charlie Brewer had a good game going 26/45 for 307 yards with three TD, and he was not picked off. He has passed for at least 303 yards in his last two games and on the season, he has 10 TD and does not have any interceptions. The Bears rushed for 104 yards in the win over Iowa State but only averaged 3.1 yards per carry. John Lovett led the team with 52 yards averaging 4.3 yards per carry, and he is the leading rusher for the team. He had 12 carries in the win over Iowa State, which was his season high and his play may be more important if the rains come down. Brewer and company will be facing a Kansas State defense that ranks 2nd in the nation in pass defense, but only 109th in run defense and that run defense was torched in their loss to Oklahoma State.
When Kansas State Has the Ball
Kansas State will look to run the ball in this game, as that is, by far, the strength of their offense. They only had 118 passing yards in the loss to Oklahoma State and rushed for 126 yards averaging 3.9 yards per carry. Skylar Thompson was 11/23 for 118 yards with no TD and no INT and also was the 2nd leading rusher with 27 yards. James Gilbert led the Wildcats with 44 yards and only averaged 3.7 yards per carry. After he rushed for over 100 yards in his first two games and he has failed to rush for over 59 yards in his last two games, where he failed to average over four yards per carry in each. Baylor ranks a legitimate 25th in the nation in run defense, but in their four games have not faced a team with a great rushing attack.
Betting Trends
Baylor is 2-2 ATS on the season, and they failed to cover the spread in their 23-21 win over Iowa State where they were a 2.5-point favorite. In their first two games of the season, the total went Over, and in the last two games, it has gone Under. Kansas State covered the spread in their first three games of the season but failed to do so in the 26-13 loss to Oklahoma State where they were a five-point underdog. While Baylor is 3-7 ATS in their last ten games against Kansas State and 1-4 ATS in their previous five games facing them on the road the underdog has covered the spread every time over the past four games between these Big 12 rivals. The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against a team with a winning record, and the Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their previous seven home games.
Weather Report
The forecast for Saturday calls for a possible thunderstorm and showers before 2 PM and then may clear up. There is a 70% chance of rain and a projected high of 74 degrees.
- Get more details: Baylor at Kansas State NCAAF Match-up Stats
