Kansas and Villanova kick-off this blue blood Final Four when they meet in the first national semi-final Saturday evening in New Orleans. The Jayhawks are shooting for their fourth national championship but first since 2008, while the Wildcats also seek their fourth national title and third over the last seven NCAA tournaments.
Kansas is favored by a couple of buckets for this game, and that line could go up as tip-off approaches, with Villanova down a key starter.
How are we playing this game with our free college basketball Final Four betting pick?
NCAA Tournament Betting Odds
The Final Four betting lines opened Kansas as a 3.5-point favorite over Villanova, with an over/under of right around 132. Early betting action then bumped the Jayhawks to -4.5.
According to Sagarin’s CBB ratings at sagarin.com, Kansas should only be favored by a point and a half for this match-up. But that doesn’t take into account the Wildcats’ injury situation.
Villanova-Kansas Final Four Betting Preview
The Wildcats reached this national semi-final by beating Houston in the South Region final last Saturday 50-44. Villanova, playing as a three-point underdog, scored the first five points of the game and led 27-20 at the half. The Wildcats then pushed their lead to 40-29 midway through the second half, let the Cougars get within two points with five minutes left but held on from there for the victory.
On Saturday, Villanova only shot 29 percent from the field but hit 15/15 from the free-throw line and held Houston to just 30 percent FG shooting.
The Wildcats opened this NCAA tournament with an 80-60 win over Delaware, covering at -15, then beat Ohio State 71-61, covering at -5, then defeated Michigan 63-55, cashing in at -4.5.
Stretching back into the regular season, Villanova is 14-1 SU, 8-6-1 ATS over its last 15 games, which includes a three-game run to the Big East Conference tournament championship a couple of weeks ago.
The Wildcats are also now 13-7 SU, 10-9-1 ATS this season against teams that made this NCAA tournament.
On the injury front Villanova G Justin Moore, the team’s second-leading scorer this season at 15 points per game, tore an Achilles tendon last Saturday and will miss the Final Four.
The Jayhawks, meanwhile, reached this national semi-final by disposing of Miami in the Mid-west Region final last Sunday 76-50. Kansas, playing as a six-point favorite, shot the ball poorly early and trailed the Hurricanes 35-29 at the half. But the Jayhawks used a 19-5 run out of the locker room to take control and pulled away for the W and the money.
Kansas shot 50 percent from the floor Sunday, held Miami to just 35 percent FG shooting, and out-rebounded the ‘Canes 41-28.
The Jayhawks opened this NCAA tournament with an 83-56 romp over Texas Southern, covering at -21.5, then beat Creighton 79-72, coming up short ATS at -13.5, then held off Providence 66-61 but again came up short ATS at -7.
Stretching back into the regular season, Kansas is 9-0 SU, 6-3 ATS over its last nine games, which includes a three-game run to the Big 12 Conference tournament title.
The Jayhawks are also now 13-5 SU but only 8-10 ATS this season against teams that made this NCAA tournament.
These teams have met five times over the previous nine seasons, twice in the NCAA tournament, with Villanova going 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS. Most recently, two seasons ago, the Wildcats beat then-No. 1 Kansas 56-55 in a December non-conference bout in Philadelphia.
NCAA Tournament Betting Trends
Totals Report
The Under is 20-17 in Wildcats games this season, which are averaging 137 total points.
The Overs is 20-18 in Jayhawks games this season, which are averaging 147 points.
The Under is 35-29 in this NCAA tournament.
