UNC Wilmington Seahawks at Elon Phoenix Pick

The UNC Wilmington Seahawks (9-22) and Elon Phoenix (11-20) will square off in the first round of the Colonial Athletic Association Tournament. Tip-off is set for 6:30 PM ET on Saturday, March 9th, 2019. The game will be available for streaming on CAA.TV live from Elon, North Carolina. The Phoenix and Seahawks have met twice already this season with the Phoenix sweeping the regular season series. Over this span, Elon went 2-0 ATS. These two teams last met on February 21st on this very court with the Phoenix defeating the Seahawks 84-77 despite closing as a 1.5-point underdog.

UNC Wilmington Seahawks at Elon Phoenix Overview

UNC Wilmington Seahawks

The Seahawks step into this contest on a three-game losing streak. Over this span, UNCW has also been a liability against the spread as they have gone 0-2-1 ATS. Most recently, the Seahawks were on the hardwood against the College of Charleston a week ago. As a nine-point road underdog, UNC Wilmington fell by a score of 70-61 to generate a push.

Elon Phoenix

The Phoenix have won their last two games and have pulled upsets in both of these contests. The Phoenix were priced as a six-point underdog against the James Madison Dukes when they upset them on the road on February 28th by a score of 73-58. Most recently a week ago, the Phoenix took down the Towson Tigers on their own court by a score of 86-66, closing as a 4.5-point underdog.

Reasons To Back UNC Wilmington

The Seahawks are the more physical team on the boards, and that is a critical advantage in a game that is forecasted to be settled by such slim margins. UNCW generates 37.2 total rebounds per game (86th in the NCAA) while giving away 30.5 boards per contest (99th overall). This gives the Seahawks a rebound margin of +6.7. Contrarily, the Phoenix is -.4 in rebounding margin as they generate 33.6 total boards per contest (278th nationally) while opponents produce 34 total rebounds per contest (291st in America) against Elon. Combining this with Wilmington’s edge in bench play, UNCW can play a physical game and wear down Elon setting up the Seahawks to potentially rout the Phoenix let alone cover the small spread.

Reasons To Avoid Elon

Thanks to their two upsets where they have won by decisive margins, the Phoenix may look like easy money here against a team whose number they have had all season. 63% of the consensus like Elon here as the underdog which raises a red flag. Given the spot, the Seahawks are primed to be severely undervalued, and takers of the Phoenix could be stepping into a prime let-down position.