Big East meets Mountain West for all the marbles when Connecticut battles San Diego State in the NCAA tournament’s national championship game Monday night in Houston. The Huskies are on an epic tournament roll and favored by a touchdown for this contest. But the Aztecs already own two outright victories as underdogs in this Big Dance.
Who do we like for our free national championship pick?
Final Four Betting Odds
The national championship game betting market opened Connecticut at -6.5 over San Diego State, with an over/under of right around 132. Early betting action then bumped the Huskies to -7.5.
According to Sagarin’s NCAAB ratings at USAToday.com, UConn should only be favored by 5.5 points for this match-up.
National Championship Game Betting Preview
San Diego State reached this national championship game by coming from behind to stun upstart Florida Atlantic Saturday 72-71 on a bucket at the buzzer. The Aztecs trailed the Owls 40-33 at the half, 56-42 with 13 minutes left, and 71-68 with 45 seconds to go. But San Diego State scored the last two hoops of the game, the second on a Lamont Butler jumper as time ran out, to steal victory from the jaws of defeat.
However, the Aztecs came up a bucket short of covering the spread as three-point favorites.
San Diego State opened this NCAA tournament with a 63-57 victory over College of Charleston, then beat Furman 75-52, then toppled top overall seed Alabama 71-64, then outlasted Creighton 57-56 to reach the Final Four.
So the Aztecs are now 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS this season against teams that made this Big Dance.
Connecticut, meanwhile, reached this national title bout by dispatching Miami Saturday 72-59. The Huskies, favored by six points, scored the first nine points of the game and never trailed. UConn led 37-24 at the half, pushed that advantage to 20 early in the second half, and never allowed the Hurricanes to get closer than eight from there, on its way to victory and the cash.
The Huskies shot 49 percent from the field Saturday, held Miami to just 32 percent shooting, and won the battle on the glass 41-32.
Connecticut opened this NCAA tournament with an 87-63 romp over Iona, then beat St. Mary’s 70-55, then disposed of Arkansas 88-65, then bombed Gonzaga 82-54 to reach the Final Four.
So the Huskies are now 11-6 SU, 12-5 ATS this season against teams that made this Big Dance.
These teams played four common opponents this season; Alabama, Arkansas, Creighton, and St. Mary’s. San Diego State played those foes to 2-2, both SU and ATS, and +1 point per game, UConn to 3-1, both SU and ATS, and +11 PPG.
NCAA Tournament Betting Trends
Higher seeds are 43-19 SU but only 30-32 ATS in this NCAA tournament.
San Diego State is 3-2 ATS this season as an underdog.
UConn is 14-6 ATS this season when favored by eight points or less.
Totals Report
This season, the Unders are 22-15 in Aztecs games, averaging 137 points.
The Overs are 20-18 in Huskies games this season, which are averaging 144 points.
