Jackson Shelstad Oregon Ducks

Oregon vs. Arizona: Expert ATS Pick and Game Preview

By Darin Zank
Date: 23/03/2025 9:40 pm
Location: Climate Pledge Arena
TV: TBS

Betting Odds



Point Spread: Ariz -4
Total: 152.5

Old friends renew acquaintances when Arizona and Oregon meet for an NCAA tournament second-round bout on Sunday night in Seattle.

Both these teams, former longtime PAC-12 rivals, won their first-round match-ups rather easily Friday. Now they’ll play for the final spot in the Sweet 16.

Who do we like for our free college basketball betting pick?

NCAA Tournament Betting Odds

The NCAA tournament betting market opened Arizona at -4.5 for Sunday night, with an over/under of right around 153. Early betting action shaved that spread to -4.

Oregon-Arizona Betting Preview

The Ducks reached this NCAA tournament second-round match-up by disposing of Liberty in a first-round game Friday 81-52. Oregon, favored at -7, flew out to an 18-2 lead, pushed that to 44-20 at the half and never led by less than 20 in the second half.

The Ducks shot 54 percent from the floor Friday, held the Flames to 33 percent shooting, and out-rebounded Liberty 43-27.

Oregon played 12-8 in the Big 10 this season and finished its regular season on a seven-game winning streak. The Ducks then won their first game in the Big 10 tournament before falling to Michigan State in the quarterfinals. So Oregon is 9-1 SU, 6-3-1 ATS over its last 10 games.

Meanwhile the Wildcats reached the second round of this NCAA tournament by disposing of 13th-seeded Akron Friday 93-65. Arizona, favored at -14, led 41-31 at the half, then pulled away in the second half.

The Wildcats shot 57 percent from the field, held the Zips to 33 percent, and dominated the battle on the glass 53-22.

Arizona played 14-6 in the Big 12 this season but finished by losing five of its last eight games. The Wildcats then won their first two games in the Big 12 tournament before losing the championship game to Houston 72-64. So Arizona is 6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS over its last 12 games.

By the Numbers

  • Oregon is shooting 46 percent from the field this season, while Arizona is holding opponents to 41 percent shooting.
  • The Wildcats are shooting 48 percent from the floor, while the Ducks are holding foes to 43 percent.
  • Arizona is out-rebounding opponents by a per-game margin of 37-29; Oregon by 32-30.
  • Finally, according to Kenpom.com Oregon played the No. 17 schedule in the country this season, Arizona No. 5.

Oregon-Arizona Recent History

These longtime rivals met three times last season as members of the PAC-12; the Wildcats beat the Ducks twice during the regular season but Oregon beat Arizona in the semifinals of the conference tournament.

However, most of the guys who played large parts in those games are no longer with these teams.

NCAA Tournament Betting Trends

  • Oregon is 8-7 in both SU and ATS this season against teams that made this NCAA tournament.
  • Arizona is 8-10, both SU and ATS vs. tournament qualifiers.

Totals Report

  • The Unders are 8-1 over Oregon’s last nine games.
  • The Overs are 4-2 over Arizona’s last six games.
  • Through Saturday, the Unders are 24-15 in this NCAA tournament.

Free NCAA Tournament Betting Pick

We give Arizona several statistical edges on Oregon; the Wildcats shoot the ball better, play better defense and do a better job on the boards. They also played the tougher schedule. And the ‘Cats shoot 78 percent from the free-throw line, which comes in handy when trying to put games away and cover spreads. We like Arizona for Sunday night, minus the points.

Free Pick: Take Arizona -4
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